TICKER INTELLIGENCE

Marathon Petroleum ($MPC)

NYSE/NASDAQ: MPC

Company & Legislative Profile

Marathon Petroleum is a publicly traded company in the Energy sector. This company operates across Energy and is subject to various Congressional legislative and regulatory actions. HillSignal is tracking 16 active Congressional signals mentioning Marathon Petroleum, including 16 bills. The current legislative sentiment is predominantly bullish, suggesting potential tailwinds from government policy.

Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) is currently facing 16 active congressional signals tracked by HillSignal. With 11 bullish, 2 neutral, and 3 bearish signals, the average legislative impact score is 3.8/10. Key sectors affected include Energy, Transportation and Infrastructure. Recent major catalysts include A concurrent resolution setting forth the congressional budget for the United States Government for fiscal year 2026 and setting forth the appropriate budgetary levels for fiscal years 2027 through 2035. and New Source Review Permitting Improvement Act. Below is the complete tracker of government activity affecting Marathon Petroleum’s market performance.

16

Total Signals

3.8/10

Avg Impact

11

Bullish Signals

3

Bearish Signals

Policy Threads affecting Marathon Petroleum ($MPC)

3 clusters

AI-detected clusters of bills sharing policy language across their analyses. Concepts are literal phrases present in every member's AI text — not generated narratives.

Recent Congressional Signals for Marathon Petroleum ($MPC)

HR 8519, introduced April 27, 2026, by Rep. Mast (R-FL), mandates an EPA waiver of summer Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits on gasoline from May 1 to September 15, 2026. The bill is in early legislative stages (referred to House Energy and Commerce). If enacted, it would reduce refinery production costs for summer gasoline by allowing cheaper butane blending, benefiting independent refiners like Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. No market data is available for price impact analysis.

Impact: 2/10HR8519Congressional Bill

HR 8600 is an early-stage bill referred to the House Ways and Means Committee on April 30, 2026. It proposes a conditional fuel excise tax reduction tied to gasoline prices above $3.99/gallon, offset by suspending certain oil and gas tax deductions (intangible drilling costs). The bill has zero near-term market impact as it has not passed committee, let alone either chamber.

Impact: 3/10HR8600Congressional Bill

HR7688 (DPA Modernization Act) reduces regulatory risk for domestic energy producers by limiting presidential DPA emergency powers, combined with a concurrent Presidential Determination supporting petroleum and refining. Energy stocks XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC rose 4-10% in the 7 days after the 41-0 committee vote on March 4 and the Presidential Determination, while defense primes LMT, NOC, GD, RTX continue significant 30-day declines of 7-17% unrelated to this bill.

Impact: 5/10HR7688Congressional Bill

The FY2026 budget resolution provides reconciliation instructions enabling deficit-financed energy tax/spending policies, while five concurrent DPA determinations signed April 20 grant executive authority to accelerate domestic energy project financing, permitting, and purchasing. This is a high-conviction bullish catalyst for US energy producers ($XOM, $CVX), midstream operators ($KMI, $ET), and oilfield services ($SLB, $HAL), coinciding with a 30-day selloff that makes current entry levels attractive relative to DPA-backed upside.

Impact: 6/10SCONRES33Congressional Bill

HR8330, introduced April 16, 2026 and referred to the House Judiciary Committee, proposes a broad liability exemption for all energy companies across the full hydrocarbon value chain. The market has already been accumulating energy equities over the past 7 trading sessions, with refiners MPC (+9.97%) and PSX (+8.79%) leading sector gains, suggesting institutional recognition of this pro-energy regulatory trajectory. Combined with the April 20 DPA determinations and recent presidential permits for Enbridge, the administration is building a comprehensive policy floor for energy infrastructure investment.

Impact: 4/10HR8330Congressional Bill

HR7919 is an early-stage bill proposing a federal gasoline tax holiday until October 1, 2026, with General Fund backfill for the Highway Trust Fund. It is net neutral for midstream operators KMI and ET due to the backfill protecting throughput volumes, and net negative for refiners PSX and MPC due to mandatory pass-through of the tax cut to consumers. Passage probability is low given the Democratic sponsorship in a divided House. The bill has no near-term market impact—recent 30-day refining stock declines of -2.93% (PSX) and +0.92% (MPC) reflect crude margin cycles, not this legislation.

Impact: 3/10HR7919Congressional Bill

HR8266 is early-stage legislation with low passage probability. The bill proposes a gasoline export ban when US average prices exceed $3.12/gal for 7 days. Near-term market impact is negligible; refiners PSX, VLO, and MPC are structurally short this policy if it advanced. Current stock prices show strong 7-day rallies (PSX +8.33%, VLO +6.74%, MPC +9.75%) unrelated to this bill.

Impact: 2/10HR8266Congressional Bill

HR8228, an early-stage House bill to nullify Presidential Proclamation 11012's temporary import surcharge, would materially reduce input costs for major retailers and energy companies if enacted. The bill mandates retroactive refunds of surcharges collected since February 20, 2026, creating potential for significant cash refunds to importers. Market data shows retailers $WMT and $TGT trading near 52-week highs and refiners $PSX and $MPC posting strong 7-day gains, reflecting sector optimism around trade cost relief.

Impact: 4/10HR8228Congressional Bill

HR8079 eliminates ALL federal emissions control requirements for motor vehicles — a complete repeal of Title II Clean Air Act rules on aftertreatment, diagnostic systems, and diesel fuel sulfur. The bill structurally destroys demand for aftertreatment component suppliers like Dana ($DAN) while drastically lowering cost bases for truck manufacturers (PACCAR) and refiners (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum). This is early-stage legislation with zero earmarked funding, but its mechanism — absolute prohibition on enforcement — is a direct financial transfer from the emissions control supply chain to truck OEMs and fuel producers.

Impact: 4/10HR8079Congressional Bill

The American Petroleum First Act (HR8021), introduced March 19, 2026, exempts certain vessels from Jones Act restrictions for domestic crude and petroleum product transport, lowering marine costs for refiners and producers. Real market data shows a strong 7-day recovery in energy stocks, led by independent refiners MPC (+9.52%), PSX (+8.42%), and VLO (+6.48%), reversing sharp 30-day pullbacks in majors (XOM -8.7%, CVX -6.65%). Bill is early-stage but represents a clear regulatory catalyst for domestic oil logistics cost relief.

Impact: 4/10HR8021Congressional Bill

HR 7960 (Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act) is an early-stage bill referred to committee with low passage probability. It introduces headline risk to the energy sector but has no near-term financial impact. Real market data shows a broad 7-day rally across the sector (XOM +3.79%, CVX +4.1%, MPC +8.82%) despite a mixed 30-day trend, indicating that investors are not pricing in this legislative risk.

Impact: 3/10HR7960Congressional Bill

The Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act (S4111) imposes a 50% excise tax on crude oil profits above a 2025 baseline, directly targeting U.S. producers (XOM, CVX, EOG, OXY) and refiners/importers (MPC, PSX, VLO). The bill is in early committee stage with 12 Democratic cosponsors and a companion in the House, indicating partisan momentum but a long legislative path. Despite recent 7-day rallies in oil stocks (XOM +3.7%, MPC +8.74%), the bill signals a clear policy risk to upstream margins and refining costs.

Impact: 4/10S4111Congressional Bill

S3879 would exempt spent petroleum catalyst from hazardous waste regulations, enabling US refiners to recover vanadium and other critical minerals at lower cost. The bill is early-stage but has a House companion. Marathon Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron stand to benefit from reduced compliance costs and new vanadium revenue streams.

Impact: 3/10S3879Congressional Bill

S.4032 (Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026) proposes a federal gasoline excise tax holiday through October 1, 2026. The bill is in early legislative stages (referred to Senate Finance Committee) with companion bills in the House. For refiners and marketers ($XOM, $CVX, $MPC, $PSX, $VLO), the holiday is a pass-through cost reduction with mandatory consumer benefit — it does not change net earnings or competitive dynamics. Real market data through April 30, 2026 shows mixed 30-day performance but strong 7-day rallies across all five tickers, likely driven by broader energy sector dynamics rather than this stalled legislation.

Impact: 3/10S4032Congressional Bill

HR161 (New Source Review Permitting Improvement Act) reported out of House Energy & Commerce Committee on April 28, 2026. Refiners ($MPC, $PSX) and chemical companies ($LYB, $DOW) show strong 7-day gains of +9.37% and +8.75% respectively, reflecting market pricing of regulatory relief. The bill redefines NSR 'modification' to require a 10-year peak-hourly baseline and exempts reliability/safety projects, directly lowering compliance costs for heavy industry.

Impact: 6/10HR161Congressional Bill

HR1422 (Enhanced Iran Sanctions Act) passed the House on March 16, 2026, and is now pending in the Senate. If enacted, mandatory sanctions on Iranian petroleum transactions will tighten global crude supply by 0.5-1.5 million bpd, boosting prices and margins for U.S. oil producers ($XOM, $CVX), independent refiners ($MPC, $PSX, $VLO), and crude tanker owners ($FRO, $DHT). Recent market data shows energy stocks already pricing in supply disruption risk, with refiners and tanker stocks posting strong 7-day gains of 2.7-9.4%.

Impact: 5/10HR1422Congressional Bill

Understanding These Signals

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