Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026

What happened: On March 12, 2026, Representative Pappas (D-NH) introduced HR7919, the Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026, which would set the federal gasoline excise tax to zero from enactment through October 1, 2026. The bill was referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means. A companion bill, S4032, has been introduced in the Senate. As of April 30, 2026, the bill remains in committee with no further action. Sponsorship by a single Democratic junior member in a divided House (119th Congress, Republican-controlled House) means passage probability is low.

The money trail: The bill does not authorize or appropriate any spending. Section 2(b) provides a mechanism for the Treasury to transfer General Fund monies to the Highway Trust Fund and Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund equal to the forgone tax revenue. This is a backfill authorization—it requires a separate appropriations step for the General Fund outlay. No explicit dollar amount is stated; the CBO would need to score the revenue loss. The penalty provision in Section 2(c) empowers Treasury to enforce consumer pass-through but does not establish a specific penalty fund or allocate money.

Structural winners and losers: The bill is net neutral for midstream operators KMI and ET. Their refined products pipeline volumes (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) are driven by underlying demand and highway construction spending—the Highway Trust Fund backfill protects the latter. For refiners PSX and MPC, the bill is net negative if enacted. The mandatory pass-through of the 18.4¢/gallon tax cut eliminates any ability to capture the tax differential as margin. However, given the near-zero probability of passage in the current Congress, this is a theoretical risk, not a live market factor.

Real market data analysis: The actual recent price action confirms this bill is not moving markets. PSX has rallied 13.1% over the last 10 trading days (April 17 close of $156.37 to April 30 close of $176.85) on a 7-day gain of +8.6%, driven by refining margin recovery and crude spread tightening. MPC is up 15.3% over the same period ($213.69 to $246.43) with a 7-day gain of +9.94%. These moves correspond to the crack spread environment, not legislative risk. KMI and ET show modest gains in-line with midstream sector performance.

Timeline: As an early-stage bill referred to committee, the legislative path would require Ways and Means markup, House floor passage, Senate Finance Committee markup, Senate floor passage, conference committee, and presidential signature. With the 119th Congress running through January 2027 and a divided government, the probability of completion by October 1, 2026 is below 10%. Investors should treat this as a non-event for portfolio positioning.