Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026

1) WHAT HAPPENED AND STATUS: On March 12, 2026, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) introduced HR7919, the Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026, which proposes setting the federal gasoline excise tax (18.4 cents/gal) to zero from enactment until October 1, 2026. The bill was referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means — the committee with tax jurisdiction. Identical companion bill S4032 was referred to the Senate Committee on Finance. Both bills remain at the earliest legislative stage with no hearings, markups, or cosponsors recorded. The bill is a procedural filing with extremely low passage probability in the 119th Congress, controlled by Republicans in the House (218-215, with vacancies) and the Senate (53-47). 2) THE MONEY TRAIL: The bill does not authorize or appropriate any new spending. It reduces federal gasoline tax revenue by an estimated $15-20 billion over ~6 months (based on ~90 billion gallons consumed). The bill's Section 2(b) requires the Treasury Secretary to transfer from the general fund to the Highway Trust Fund and LUST Trust Fund amounts equal to lost tax revenue — meaning the tax cut is deficit-financed via general fund outlays. This is a critical distinction: no automatic appropriations mechanism exists; the transfers require Treasury authority but no additional congressional appropriation, making execution more certain if the bill passed. However, the bill provides zero new funding for energy companies — it is entirely a tax cut and accounting mechanism. 3) STRUCTURAL WINNERS AND LOSERS: The bill explicitly imposes a policy that 'benefits of tax reduction should be passed on to consumers' with monetary penalties for failure to reduce prices — this directly targets refiners and fuel wholesalers. Refiners ($PSX, $MPC) would be forced to surrender ~18 cents/gal margin that normally flows through their supply chains. Midstream operators ($KMI, $ET) are structurally neutral: they earn toll-based fees unaffected by fuel price levels, and the trust fund backfill protects their volume base. The Presidential Memorandum from April 20, 2026, expanding domestic petroleum production via DPA Section 303, conflicts directionally with the tax holiday by aiming to increase supply — a supply increase is a more structurally bullish driver for midstream volumes than a temporary demand stimulus from lower taxes. Consumers are the clear winners if the bill passed, but no retail-investable ticker benefits from a consumption subsidy to households. 4) REAL MARKET DATA ANALYSIS: As of April 28, 2026, refining stocks show a 7-day recovery trend ($XOM +0.71%, $CVX +1.09%, $PSX +2.79%, $MPC +4.74%) after steep 30-day declines ($XOM -11.95%, $CVX -10.79%, $PSX -12.3%, $MPC -7.67%). The 30-day declines correspond to falling crude oil prices and lower refining crack spreads in March-April, not tax holiday speculation (the bill was introduced March 12, when crack spreads were already declining). The recent 7-day bounce in refining stocks vs. flat midstream ($KMI -0.06%, $ET +1.78%) suggests refining margin stabilization, not legislative catalyst. No price data supports any market pricing of HR7919 passing. 5) TIMELINE AND FURTHER STEPS: As an early-stage House bill sponsored by a junior Democrat with no cosponsors, legislative velocity is effectively zero. Required steps: Ways and Means Committee mark-up (likely not scheduled), House floor vote, Senate Finance Committee action, Senate floor vote, and presidential signature. With a divided Congress and no Republican sponsor or committee chair support, this bill has a <5% probability of enactment in the 119th Congress. The companion bill S4032 faces identical mathematical hurdles. The April 20 Presidential Determination on domestic oil production is a separate, already-executed executive action that will have more tangible near-term market impact by potentially boosting domestic refinery crude supply and lowering feedstock costs.