SCALE Act

The SCALE Act was introduced on April 15, 2026 by Rep. Moolenaar (R-MI) and referred to the Committees on Foreign Affairs and Intelligence. It is in the earliest legislative stage — far from passage, with no Senate companion bill. The bill does not authorize or appropriate any funding; it mandates a regulatory process within the executive branch. The core mechanism: the Secretary of Commerce and DNI must jointly establish and annually update objective performance metrics for AI hardware (integrated circuits) and use those metrics to set a rolling annual standard for export to 'entities of concern'. This replaces purely ad-hoc export control actions (like prior chip bans) with a scheduled, data-driven process. The stated goal is to limit adversaries' ability to indigenize AI hardware while providing 'business stability' through a predictable review cycle. Structural winners: U.S.-based foundries like Intel Foundry Services could attract allied chip designers seeking to avoid export restrictions by fabricating on domestic soil. Allied semiconductor equipment makers and EDA software vendors may see steady demand as the annual standard aligns global supply chains around U.S.-compliant nodes. Structural losers: companies heavily reliant on revenue from restricted markets — SMCI has the highest proportionate exposure among the named tickers given its hardware integration business model. NVDA and AMD face continued capping of a high-margin revenue stream, though the bill's process orientation reduces the risk of surprise blanket bans. The bill's early-stage status (introduced, referred to two committees, no hearing scheduled) means actual market impact is low near-term. However, for investors in AI infrastructure, the direction of travel is clear: the U.S. is building a permanent, institutionalized export control architecture rather than relying on executive orders. This reduces binary risk but also removes any scenario where restrictions meaningfully loosen.