More Homes on the Market Act
Summary
HR1340 (More Homes on the Market Act) proposes doubling the capital gains exclusion on home sales. If enacted, it would incentivize homeowners to sell, increasing housing inventory and transaction volumes. Real estate marketplace Zillow ($Z) and major mortgage lenders WFC, JPM, and BAC are structural beneficiaries.
See which stocks are affected
Key takeaways, market implications, full AI analysis, and connected signals are available to HillSignal members.
Already have an account? Log in
Key Takeaways
- 1.HR1340 doubles the capital gains tax exclusion on home sales to $500k/$1M, indexed for inflation.
- 2.116 bipartisan cosponsors and a Senate companion bill (S3332) give it above-average early-stage momentum.
- 3.Zillow ($Z) and top mortgage lenders ($WFC, $JPM, $BAC) are direct structural beneficiaries if enacted.
- 4.No funding is authorized; this is a tax code amendment affecting homeowner behavior, not direct government spending.
Market Implications
The housing sector has been constrained by low inventory, partly due to the rate lock effect. HR1340 addresses one component — the tax lock — and could meaningfully increase for-sale inventory if passed. For $Z at $43.16 (near the 52-week low of $39.05), this is a potential catalyst for a re-rating toward the $55-$65 range if the bill advances through committee. For the large banks, mortgage origination revenue is a single-digit percentage of total revenue, so even a 10-15% increase in purchase volume is a moderate tailwind, not a transformative event. Monitor Ways and Means markup schedule: any hearing or markup would be the next catalyst.
Full Analysis
On February 13, 2025, Representative Panetta (D-CA) introduced HR1340, the More Homes on the Market Act. The bill is in early legislative stage — referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means. It does not allocate any direct funding (authorization or appropriation. The bill amends the Internal Revenue Code to double the Section 121 capital gains exclusion: from $250k to $500k for single filers, and from $500k to $1M for married joint filers, with annual inflation indexing.
The mechanism is a tax incentive, not direct spending. The obligated party is the homeowner — specifically those with large accumulated gains who currently refrain from selling due to the tax bite. Reducing that penalty increases listing supply, which in turn boosts transaction volumes across real estate services.
The bill has 116 cosponsors (bipartisan) and a companion bill S3332 in the Senate, indicating above-average momentum for a standalone tax bill. However, the current status ("Referred to committee") means it remains early-stage. Likely path: Ways and Means markup, floor vote, then Senate Finance Committee.
Structural winners: Zillow ($Z) as the leading online real estate marketplace; its advertising revenue tracks transaction volume. Major mortgage originators: Wells Fargo ($WFC), JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Bank of America ($BAC) would benefit from increased purchase mortgage origination volumes. The bill does not directly impact title insurance or appraisal companies, but those sectors would also gain indirectly.
$Z real market data shows a 30-day gain of +4.3% to $43.16, but a 7-day decline of -4.95% from $45.41 to $43.16. This recent price weakness is not related to HR1340 (which has not moved since Feb). The bill's progress is an upside catalyst not yet priced into $Z above $45 resistance. The large bank tickers ($WFC $81.57, $JPM $310.52, $BAC $53.08) are trading near their month highs, buoyed by earnings and broader rate expectations — any legislative progress on housing supply would add a sector-specific tailwind.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
Multiple independent sources confirm this signal’s market thesis
What the bill does
Tax exclusion increase for capital gains on principal residence sales: doubles exclusion from $250k/$500k to $500k/$1M, indexed for inflation.
Who must act
Homeowners with unrealized capital gains on primary residences who are currently 'locked in' and not selling due to tax liability.
What happens
Reduces the tax penalty for selling, increasing the number of homeowners willing to list. Higher listing inventory boosts transaction volumes for real estate platforms and brokerages.
Stock impact
Zillow generates revenue primarily through Premier Agent advertising fees tied to transaction volume. Increased listings and home sales directly increase agent demand for leads on Zillow's marketplace. Zillow's revenue is highly correlated with existing home sales volumes.
What the bill does
Tax exclusion increase incentivizes home sales, driving mortgage origination volume for purchase loans.
Who must act
Homeowners selling and moving; buyers purchasing listed homes.
What happens
Higher transaction volume increases the pool of mortgage originations. Wells Fargo is one of the largest US mortgage lenders, with a large retail mortgage origination business.
Stock impact
Wells Fargo's mortgage banking segment generates fee income from originations and servicing rights. A sustained increase in home sales directly boosts origination volumes, partially offsetting the drag from lower refinance activity in a higher-rate environment.
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
Main Street Capital Access Act
SSI Savings Penalty Elimination Act
Main Street Depositor Protection Act
To prohibit stock sales by senior bank executives in certain circumstances.
Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act
Improving SBA Engagement on Employee Ownership Act
Merchant Banking Modernization Act
Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act of 2025
Related Presidential Actions
Executive orders & memoranda affecting the same sectors or companies
Implementing Schedule Policy/Career in the Excepted Service
This executive order expands the Schedule Policy/Career excepted service category, transferring certain federal positions from competitive service to at-will employment to facilitate removal for poor performance or misconduct. It directs agency heads to petition for reclassification of policy-influencing roles, mandates performance bonus pools for these employees, and amends civil service rules to exempt them from standard adverse action procedures.
Removing Unnecessary and Counterproductive Restrictions on Access to Federal Lands
This executive order rescinds two 1970s-era executive orders (11644 and 11989) that required federal agencies to use vague environmental and social criteria when designating off-road vehicle use on federal lands. It directs the Secretaries of War, Interior, Agriculture, the TVA Board, and other relevant agency heads to initiate rulemakings to remove or revise regulations based on those criteria, aiming to increase access for energy, timber, utility maintenance, and recreation.
Restoring Integrity to America’s Financial System
This executive order directs the Treasury Department to issue an advisory to financial institutions on risks from non-work authorized populations and their employers, propose regulatory changes to strengthen Bank Secrecy Act customer due diligence and identification requirements, and consider risks from foreign consular IDs. It also directs the CFPB to clarify that deportation risk can affect ability-to-repay assessments for non-work authorized borrowers, and federal financial regulators to issue guidance on credit risks from this population.