HR4130

1) What happened: On 2025-06-25, Rep. Garbarino (R-NY) introduced HR4130 to amend Section 12(g)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The bill strips institutional investors from counting toward the SEC's mandatory registration threshold. It passed committee markup (28-24) on 2025-12-17 and was placed on the Union Calendar on 2026-02-25. The bill has only one cosponsor and no Senate companion, reducing its passage probability in the 119th Congress. 2) Money trail: This bill authorizes zero direct funding. Its mechanism is regulatory exemption, not spending. By allowing private companies (particularly high-growth startups and unicorns) to add institutional capital without triggering the 2,000 investor cap for SEC registration, it removes a key catalyst forcing companies to go public via IPO. This dries up supply of new listings for exchanges. 3) Winners and losers: Exchange operators $NDAQ (Nasdaq) and $ICE (NYSE) are structurally harmed because IPO listings are a significant revenue driver tied to listing fees and related trading volume. Private markets and institutional investors benefit, but there is no pure-play public company ticker representing that upside. $CME (CME Group) is negligible here as it focuses on derivatives, not equities listings. 4) Real market data: Over the trailing 30 days, $NDAQ is up +7.98% to $91.66, $ICE is up +2.07% to $160.54, and $CME is down -2.5% to $287.96. $NDAQ’s strong recent outperformance reflects broader tech and IPO optimism, not this bill, which is contrary to $NDAQ's interest. If the bill gains momentum, a correction in $NDAQ and $ICE relative to the market is plausible. 5) Timeline: The bill must pass the full House, then the Senate (no companion bill), then be signed by the President. With the 119th Congress running through January 2027 and an election year approaching, the window for passage is narrowing. The current Union Calendar status means it is eligible for floor vote but has not been scheduled.