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The PREDICT Act (HR8076) is an early-stage bill that would prohibit covered individuals—including Members of Congress, senior executive branch officials, and judicial officers—from trading on prediction markets. It has been referred to three committees and has 25 cosponsors, but no further action since introduction on 2026-03-25. The bill authorizes no funding and imposes no direct financial impact on publicly traded companies.
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No market implications. The PREDICT Act does not authorize spending, create contracts, or regulate any publicly traded company. Prediction market platforms are private. Investors should not allocate capital based on this bill.
On March 25, 2026, Rep. Budzinski (D-IL) introduced HR8076, the PREDICT Act, which would amend federal ethics law to ban trading on prediction markets by Members of Congress, their families, senior executive branch officials (including the President and Vice President), political appointees, and judicial officers. The bill was referred to the Committees on Oversight and Government Reform, House Administration, and Judiciary. As of June 3, 2026, no further legislative action has occurred—no hearings, markups, or votes. The bill remains in early-stage committee referral.
The bill authorizes zero funding. It is a prohibitory statute, not a spending authorization or appropriation. It imposes a legal restriction on individuals, not a financial flow to companies or sectors. There is no money trail for investors to follow.
The bill does not directly affect any publicly traded company. Prediction market platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket) are not publicly traded in the US. The restriction targets individual traders, not the platforms themselves. Even if the bill advanced, its impact on corporate earnings would be negligible—prediction market volumes are small relative to traditional financial markets, and the banned individuals represent a tiny fraction of users.
No real market data is provided. The competitive landscape for prediction markets is dominated by private companies (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). No public equities are materially exposed.
The legislative path is long and uncertain. The bill must pass through three committees, then the House floor, then the Senate, and be signed by the President. With only 25 cosponsors and no Republican sponsors (the lead sponsor is a Democrat, with two Democratic cosponsors listed), bipartisan support is unclear. The 119th Congress is in its second session, and the bill has not moved in over two months. Passage in this Congress is unlikely.
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
Congressional Prediction Market Ban Act of 2026
To amend chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, to prohibit certain political officials from owning or trading stocks or trading on prediction markets.
To reaffirm the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority to enforce prohibited activity on prediction markets.
Amending the Rules of the House of Representatives to prohibit Members, officers, and employees of the House of Representatives from participating in prediction markets in certain cases, and for other purposes.
Executive orders & memoranda affecting the same sectors or companies
This executive order directs the Federal Housing Finance Agency to create pilot programs for automatic cancellation of mortgage insurance when borrowers have sufficient equity, and to expand a title insurance pilot to reduce costs for refinancing. It establishes a task force to promote manufactured housing by standardizing permits and reducing regulatory barriers. It also orders the Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs to reduce interest rates on direct home loans.
This memorandum establishes a committee to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for alleged false statements related to mortgage instruments, with a hearing scheduled and a recommendation on removal. It directs the Attorney General, Counsel to the President, and others to participate, and sets a timeline for findings.
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