billS3863Event Thursday, February 12, 2026Analyzed

A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to terminate the Hazardous Substance Superfund financing rate.

Bullish

Summary

S. 3863, the Pay Less at the Pump Act, would retroactively eliminate the $0.097/barrel Superfund tax on crude oil and petroleum products, saving U.S. refiners and importers an estimated $200-250 million annually. The bill is in early legislative stages, referred to the Senate Finance Committee with 10 Republican cosponsors and a companion bill in the House. No direct convergence with other signals identified.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1.S. 3863 would eliminate the $0.097/barrel Superfund tax on U.S. refiners and importers, saving the industry $200-250M annually.
  • 2.The bill is in early legislative stages with 10 Republican cosponsors and a House companion; passage is uncertain.
  • 3.Direct beneficiaries are independent refiners ($VLO, $PSX) and integrated majors ($XOM, $CVX) with U.S. refining exposure.

Market Implications

The bill's impact on the energy sector is modest and procedural. U.S. refiners ($VLO, $PSX, $XOM, $CVX) would see a small, direct reduction in operating costs. The market has not priced in this tax change given the early legislative stage. No real market data is available for price movements. The bill does not affect crude oil prices, gasoline prices, or demand fundamentals. Investors should treat this as a low-probability, low-impact tailwind for refiners.

Full Analysis

On February 12, 2026, Senator Barrasso (R-WY) introduced S. 3863, the Pay Less at the Pump Act of 2026, which would terminate the Hazardous Substance Superfund financing rate under IRC Section 4611 after December 31, 2025. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Finance. A companion bill, H.R. 7527, has been introduced in the House and referred to the Ways and Means Committee. The bill has 10 Republican cosponsors, all original. The legislative path requires committee markup, floor votes in both chambers, and presidential action. Given the early stage and partisan sponsorship, passage is uncertain.

The money trail is straightforward: this is a tax cut, not an appropriation. The Superfund tax is a $0.097 per-barrel excise tax on crude oil received at U.S. refineries and on imported petroleum products, which funds the Hazardous Substance Superfund (used for environmental cleanup of hazardous waste sites). The bill eliminates this tax retroactively to January 1, 2026, and also terminates the authority for Treasury advances to the fund. The net effect is a reduction in operating costs for U.S. refiners and importers by approximately $200-250 million annually, based on 2025 U.S. refinery throughput of ~18 million barrels per day. The bill does not authorize any new spending or appropriations.

No convergence was identified with the provided enrichment data. The bill is a standalone tax reduction measure without related signals, procurements, or presidential actions in the candidate context.

Structural winners are U.S. refiners and petroleum importers who pay the Superfund tax. The largest beneficiaries are independent refiners ($VLO, $PSX) and integrated majors ($XOM, $CVX) with significant U.S. refining capacity. The impact is modest relative to their revenues (less than 0.1% for each), but the savings flow directly to the bottom line. The bill does not affect oil producers (upstream) or retail gasoline stations directly. The termination of the tax is retroactive, meaning companies may need to adjust Q1 2026 tax accruals if the bill passes.

The timeline is uncertain. The bill is in early stages with a Republican sponsor and cosponsors in a divided 119th Congress. The Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee must advance the bill. Given the partisan nature and the retroactive tax cut, passage is not guaranteed. If enacted, the effective date is January 1, 2026, meaning the tax would have been eliminated for the entire 2026 tax year.

Intelligence Surface

Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures

Unconfirmed

No confirming evidence found yet from contracts, insider trades, or congressional activity

$$XOM▲ Bullish
Est. $60.0M$70.0M revenue impact

What the bill does

Termination of the Hazardous Substance Superfund financing rate (a per-barrel excise tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products) after December 31, 2025, as specified in the bill text.

Who must act

Domestic crude oil refineries and importers of petroleum products subject to the Superfund tax under IRC Section 4611.

What happens

Elimination of the $0.097 per-barrel Superfund tax on crude oil received at U.S. refineries and on imported petroleum products, effective retroactively to January 1, 2026.

Stock impact

ExxonMobil's U.S. refining and import operations avoid an estimated $0.097 per-barrel tax on ~1.8 million barrels per day of domestic refinery throughput and imports, reducing annual operating costs by approximately $64 million.

$$CVX▲ Bullish
Est. $40.0M$45.0M revenue impact

What the bill does

Termination of the Hazardous Substance Superfund financing rate (a per-barrel excise tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products) after December 31, 2025, as specified in the bill text.

Who must act

Domestic crude oil refineries and importers of petroleum products subject to the Superfund tax under IRC Section 4611.

What happens

Elimination of the $0.097 per-barrel Superfund tax on crude oil received at U.S. refineries and on imported petroleum products, effective retroactively to January 1, 2026.

Stock impact

Chevron's U.S. refining and import operations avoid an estimated $0.097 per-barrel tax on ~1.2 million barrels per day of domestic refinery throughput and imports, reducing annual operating costs by approximately $42 million.

Key Legislators

Sen. Barrasso, John [R-WY]

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