A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a windfall profits excise tax on crude oil and to rebate the tax collected back to individual taxpayers, and for other purposes.

S4111, the Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act, was introduced in the Senate on March 17, 2026 by Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) with 12 cosponsors. It has been read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Finance. The bill is in early stages — no hearings, no markup, no floor vote. Companion bill HR7960 has been referred to the House Ways and Means Committee, giving it a parallel path. However, the 119th Congress is divided: a Republican-controlled House (by a 4-seat margin) and a 50-50 Senate. This bill has essentially zero chance of becoming law in its current form without a unified Democratic sweep of both chambers and the presidency, which is not the current political reality. The tax mechanism is straightforward: a 50% excise on the difference between the current quarter's average Brent crude oil price and the 2025 annual average Brent price (adjusted for inflation after 2026). The tax applies to every barrel of crude extracted from U.S. properties or entered into the U.S. by a covered taxpayer. Revenue is rebated to individual taxpayers — a transfer from oil producers/importers to consumers. There is no explicit authorization for spending; the bill's funding impact is purely a revenue-generating tax. This is NOT an appropriations bill. The Presidential actions on April 20, 2026 under the Defense Production Act are directly relevant and CONFLICT with this bill. Those executive orders direct federal support to accelerate domestic petroleum production, refining, and logistics capacity. S4111 would impose a punitive tax on precisely the profits that DPA actions are designed to boost. The executive branch is actively trying to expand domestic energy infrastructure; this bill would contract upstream investment by reducing marginal profitability. This creates a clear policy conflict: the executive wants more domestic supply; the bill would penalize the profit incentive for that supply. Real market data shows significant weakness across the energy sector over 30 days: $XOM -11.95%, $CVX -10.79%, $PSX -12.3%, $EOG -9.21%, $OXY -10.27%. Only $BP at -0.71% and $VLO at -5.52% showed relative resilience among the group. This 30-day selloff preceded and has nothing to do with S4111's introduction in March — it likely reflects global crude price moves from OPEC+ decisions, trade war demand concerns, and the DPA actions shifting market expectations toward more supply rather than less. S4111 is not the driver of current energy weakness; global macro factors are. However, the bill's renewed attention as a political messaging tool could add slight regulatory overhang sentiment. For retail investors: the legislative probability of S4111 becoming law is near zero in the 119th Congress. The real risk is not this bill passing, but the signal it sends about the political environment. If Democrats win unified control in the 2028 election, this exact bill or something similar could become a top priority. The 30-day selloff in energy stocks may present an entry point for investors who believe the DPA-driven domestic production expansion outweighs political tax threats, but pure-play upstream operators carry concentrated exposure to any future windfall tax legislation.