To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to authorize the President to temporarily suspend the gas tax during certain national emergencies.
Summary
HR10668, introduced by Rep. Fry (R-SC) and referred to Ways and Means, would authorize the President to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax during national emergencies. The bill is in early stage with low momentum, and its market impact is negligible unless it advances significantly.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Bill is in early stage with low probability of passage this Congress.
- 2.No direct spending; authorizes a tax suspension that would reduce federal revenue.
- 3.If enacted, would temporarily boost gasoline demand, benefiting refiners like VLO, MPC, and PSX.
- 4.Market impact is negligible until the bill advances beyond committee.
Market Implications
The bill's early stage and narrow scope mean no immediate market implications. If it gains traction, refiners ($VLO, $MPC, $PSX) could see a modest tailwind from potential future demand spikes during emergencies, but the effect is speculative. No real market data is available to quantify current positioning.
Full Analysis
This bill was introduced on October 1, 2026, and referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means. It proposes amending the Internal Revenue Code to grant the President authority to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline (currently 18.4 cents per gallon) during a declared national emergency. The bill does not appropriate any funds; it authorizes a revenue reduction. With only one cosponsor and a junior member as sponsor, the bill faces long odds in the 119th Congress. No related signals or companion legislation are present. If enacted, the primary beneficiaries would be gasoline refiners and retailers, as lower pump prices would stimulate demand. However, the effect is temporary and contingent on an emergency declaration. The legislative path requires committee markup, House passage, Senate consideration, and presidential action — a multi-year process unlikely to conclude soon.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
No confirming evidence found yet from contracts, insider trades, or congressional activity
What the bill does
Tax suspension authority — the President may temporarily eliminate the federal excise tax on gasoline (18.4 cents per gallon) during a declared national emergency, reducing the retail price and increasing consumer demand.
Who must act
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) would cease collecting the tax; consumers and fuel suppliers would pay less at the pump.
What happens
Lower pump prices (by up to 18.4 cpg) during the emergency period, stimulating gasoline demand by an estimated 1-3% based on short-run price elasticity of demand.
Stock impact
Valero, as the largest independent US refiner with ~15% of domestic capacity, would see increased gasoline sales volume during any emergency period. The effect is temporary and contingent on an emergency declaration; revenue impact is small relative to total annual revenue.
What the bill does
Same tax suspension authority — temporary elimination of federal gasoline excise tax during national emergencies.
Who must act
IRS; consumers and fuel suppliers.
What happens
Lower retail gasoline prices, boosting demand by 1-3% during the emergency period.
Stock impact
Marathon Petroleum, the largest US refiner by capacity, would benefit from increased gasoline throughput at its refineries and retail network (Speedway) during an emergency. Impact is conditional and temporary.
Key Legislators
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
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