Assault Weapons Ban of 2025

The Assault Weapons Ban of 2025 (S. 1531) was introduced by Sen. Schiff (D-CA) on April 30, 2025, and referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee. The bill is in its earliest legislative stage — introduced and referred, with no hearings, markup, or floor votes. Companion bill H.R. 3115 was introduced in the House and similarly referred to the House Judiciary Committee. The bill carries 42 Democratic cosponsors in the Senate; no Republican support in either chamber. Given the current 119th Congress (2025-2027) composition — with Republicans holding the House majority and a 53-47 Senate — the bill's near-term passage probability is low. The bill authorizes no direct government spending; it imposes a regulatory prohibition on the civilian market. Private sector revenue at risk is an estimated $500 million-plus across publicly traded firearm and ammunition manufacturers based on the affected product categories. Smith & Wesson ($SWBI) and Sturm, Ruger ($RGR) are the most exposed pure-plays — each derives over 40-60% of total revenue from semiautomatic long guns and pistols that meet the bill's definitional criteria (detachable magazine + any of: pistol grip, folding stock, threaded barrel, barrel shroud, etc.). Olin ($OLN, Winchester) and Vista Outdoor (, Federal/Speer/CCI) face secondary demand erosion as the civilian installed base of legal SAWs shrinks over time, reducing centerfire ammunition volume. Defense primes like Lockheed Martin ($LMT) are structurally neutral. The bill explicitly exempts law enforcement and military procurement and does not expand those budgets. LMT does not manufacture civilian assault weapons at a material scale — its small-arms presence is negligible relative to its core aeronautics and missile defense businesses. The bill's law-enforcement carve-out creates no new federal procurement mechanism. Legislative timeline: S. 1531 requires committee hearings, markup, a floor vote in the Democrat-controlled Senate (which faces a filibuster threshold of 60 votes — unlikely with current composition), passage by the Republican-controlled House, and Presidential signature. The 42 cosponsors are entirely Democratic. Without a change in chamber control post-2026 election, enacted risk remains low. The November 2026 midterms could alter the math — if Democrats retake the House and hold/expand the Senate, the bill could gain serious momentum after the next Congress convenes in January 2027.