Radar Next Program Act of 2026
Summary
S.3795 (Radar Next Program Act) is an early-stage bill directing NOAA to plan a NEXRAD replacement. No authorized funding. $RTX is the incumbent manufacturer, but this procedural step generates no near-term revenue. The stock has declined -9.2% over 30 days to $175.16, reflecting the lack of material legislative catalyst.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.S.3795 is a planning bill with zero authorized funding — no near-term revenue for any company.
- 2.RTX is the incumbent NEXRAD manufacturer and the only named beneficiary, but the bill provides no material catalyst.
- 3.Stock has declined -9.2% over 30 days to $175.16, consistent with no market-moving legislative activity.
- 4.Actual NEXRAD replacement procurement is multiple Congresses and years away from this procedural step.
Market Implications
$RTX is the sole ticker tied to this bill, but the linkage is structurally neutral. With only 1 cosponsor, no committee action since introduction, and no authorized funds, the market has correctly priced zero impact. RTX's price action — a -9.2% 30-day decline to $175.16 — reflects broader sector dynamics or company-specific factors, not this bill. Retail investors should not trade RTX based on S.3795.
Full Analysis
What happened: On February 5, 2026, Senator Cantwell (D-WA) introduced S.3795, the Radar Next Program Act of 2026. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, where it remains. The bill mandates the Under Secretary (NOAA), in consultation with the NWS Director, to establish a program to develop performance requirements for the future weather radar network and produce a plan to replace the existing NEXRAD system. No authorized funding amount is specified — this is purely a planning and study bill.
The money trail: There is no authorized or appropriated funding in this bill. The text directs NOAA to develop a plan, evaluate commercial radars via a testbed, and develop phased array radar specifications. All of these are pre-procurement activities. Actual procurement would require a separate authorization bill with a funding ceiling, followed by an appropriations bill. That process is multiple Congresses away. The action history shows only 2 actions on a single day (introduction and referral), indicating zero legislative velocity.
Structural winners and losers: RTX is the sole clear beneficiary due to its incumbency as the NEXRAD manufacturer and its existing phased array radar expertise. However, this bill confers no competitive advantage at this stage — it merely acknowledges the need for a plan. No other defense primes (LMT, NOC, BA) are named or specifically advantaged. The bill also mentions evaluating commercial radars and gap-filling small radars, which could eventually benefit smaller radar technology firms, but none are specifically tied to the text and no tickers can be confidently assigned.
Real market data: RTX closed at $175.16 on April 30, 2026, down -9.2% over 30 days. The stock has been range-bound between $172.79 and $196.42 over the last 10 trading days, with a 52-week range of $125.43 to $214.50. The 7-day +0.52% uptick from $172.79 to $175.16 shows minor recovery from the recent selloff, not a legislative catalyst.
Timeline: The bill is in committee with no scheduled markup, no companion bill in the House, and no cosponsor momentum (only 1 cosponsor). The related bills S.3923 and H.R.3816 are broader weather authorization reauthorizations — neither is identical. Passage in the 119th Congress is uncertain. Actual radar replacement procurement is 5–10 years out even under an optimistic scenario.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
No confirming evidence found yet from contracts, insider trades, or congressional activity
What the bill does
Mandate to develop a plan to replace the NEXRAD weather radar system, with emphasis on phased array radar and commercial radar evaluation via a testbed.
Who must act
Under Secretary (NOAA/Department of Commerce) in consultation with the Director of the National Weather Service
What happens
NOAA must develop performance requirements and a replacement plan for ~160 NEXRAD sites, opening a competitive procurement process for radar hardware. No funds are authorized; the timeline for actual procurement is undefined and years away.
Stock impact
RTX (Raytheon) is the incumbent NEXRAD manufacturer. The directive to develop phased array radar and the testbed evaluation suggests RTX is positioned as the leading candidate, but the bill is purely planning — no revenue is authorized. RTX's $175.16 stock price reflects a 30-day decline of -9.2% and trade range of $172.79–$196.42 over the past 10 days, consistent with no material catalyst from this early-stage bill.
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2025
To prohibit the issuance of licenses for the exportation of certain defense articles to the United Arab Emirates, and for other purposes.
Billion Dollar Boondoggle Act of 2025
Streamlining Procurement for Effective Execution and Delivery and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
To provide for a limitation on the transfer of defense articles and defense services to Israel.
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