A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.
Summary
S.J.Res.115 is a procedural bill with zero near-term passage probability. Three identical prior resolutions were killed by cloture votes of 47-53. The 10-17% declines in defense primes over 30 days are driven by broader sector rotation, not this legislation. The bill's market impact is negligible unless it reaches the floor, which it will not.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.S.J.Res.115 has zero near-term passage probability — three identical prior resolutions failed cloture votes in the same Congress.
- 2.Defense prime declines of 10-17% over 30 days are driven by sector rotation, not this legislation.
- 3.The bill contains no funding authorization — it is a purely directive joint resolution with no appropriations impact.
- 4.No actionable market catalyst here for retail investors; ignore this bill for trading decisions.
Market Implications
This bill provides no actionable market signal. Defense primes LMT ($510.42), NOC ($575.07), and GD ($340.46) are moving on macro rotation and earnings narratives, not legislative risk from a dead-on-arrival resolution. The 30-day declines of -15.55% for LMT and -15.71% for NOC reflect profit-taking after extended defense outperformance, plus concerns about potential defense budget flatlining in FY2027 negotiations. GD's +8.7% 7-day spike indicates company-specific catalysts. Do not trade these names based on S.J.Res.115. The three prior identical bills being killed by identical cloture vote margins creates a track record of predictable failure.
Full Analysis
What happened: Senator Murphy (D-CT) introduced S.J.Res.115 on March 5, 2026, directing the President to remove US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities within or against Iran. The bill has been referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where it is in early legislative stages. Its status is procedurally dead: three identical prior resolutions (S.J.Res.104, 114, 116) were killed by cloture votes on motions to discharge, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold with margins of 47-53, 46-51, and 47-53 respectively. This iteration faces identical partisan dynamics. No funding is authorized or appropriated by this joint resolution—it is a purely directive legislative vehicle with no money attached. The causal chain between this bill and defense prime revenue is indirect: if enacted, the cessation of combat operations would slow munitions replenishment rates and reduce operational tempo for theater support contracts. However, the White House has current military authorization under the 2001 AUMF and the President's Article II authority to defend US personnel. The bill's findings explicitly note Operation Epic Fury was launched on February 28, 2026. The legislative path to enactment requires: (1) discharge from committee (requires 60 votes), (2) passage in the Senate (simple majority), (3) passage in the Republican-controlled House, and (4) Presidential signature or veto override. All three prior identical resolutions failed at step one. Real market data shows defense primes LMT (-15.55% 30-day), NOC (-15.71% 30-day), GD (-0.81% 30-day), and RTX (not provided) have declined significantly over 30 days, but this is driven by sector rotation out of defense, not by this bill. GD's +8.7% 7-day move reflects a separate catalyst. The April 20 DPA energy memoranda referenced in the prompt are unrelated to this bill and not analyzed here.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
No confirming evidence found yet from contracts, insider trades, or congressional activity
What the bill does
Joint resolution directing removal of US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran; if enacted, would require cessation of offensive military operations against Iran, reducing operational tempo and munitions consumption.
Who must act
President of the United States, acting as Commander-in-Chief, must withdraw US Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Iran not authorized by Congress.
What happens
Cessation of active combat operations would reduce demand for precision-guided munitions, missile defense interceptors, and aircraft sustainment spares consumed in operations over Iran.
Stock impact
Lockheed Martin's Missiles and Fire Control segment (25% of 2025 revenue) produces ATACMS, JASSM, LRASM, and PAC-3 interceptors; reduced operational expenditure would slow replenishment rates for munitions stockpiles, lowering near-term production volume expectations.
What the bill does
Joint resolution directing removal of US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran; if enacted, would require cessation of offensive military operations against Iran, reducing operational tempo and munitions consumption.
Who must act
President of the United States, acting as Commander-in-Chief, must withdraw US Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Iran not authorized by Congress.
What happens
Cessation of active combat operations would reduce demand for precision-guided munitions and missile defense interceptors consumed in operations over Iran.
Stock impact
Northrop Grumman's Defense Systems segment produces guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) and advanced warheads; reduced operational tempo would slow replenishment orders for expendable munitions, lowering near-term production volume expectations.
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
Secure America Act
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
Making appropriations for national security, Department of State, and related programs for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2027, and for other purposes.
Billion Dollar Boondoggle Act of 2025
Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to provide for balanced budgets for the Government.
Making further consolidated appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, and for other purposes.
To provide for a limitation on the transfer of defense articles and defense services to Israel.
Related Presidential Actions
Executive orders & memoranda affecting the same sectors or companies
National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-12
This memorandum rescinds previous national security directives and re-establishes the Committee on National Security Systems (CNSS) to enforce baseline cybersecurity standards across all National Security Systems (NSS) operated by the Department of War, Intelligence Community, and Federal Civilian Executive Branch agencies. It creates binding directives and complementary standards that must meet or exceed NIST guidelines, empowers the NSA Director as the National Manager to issue emergency directives and cryptography requirements, and holds agency heads accountable through government-wide oversight.
National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-11
This memorandum directs the national security enterprise (including the Department of War, intelligence agencies, and others) to accelerate the adoption, adaptation, and assurance of AI technologies for military and intelligence missions. It mandates updates to DOD Directive 3000.09 on autonomous weapons within 90 days, requires termination of contracts with companies that repeatedly violate policy (e.g., by enabling adversary control or embedding bias), and emphasizes supply chain resilience and multi-vendor sourcing to avoid single-vendor dependencies.
Implementing Schedule Policy/Career in the Excepted Service
This executive order expands the Schedule Policy/Career excepted service category, transferring certain federal positions from competitive service to at-will employment to facilitate removal for poor performance or misconduct. It directs agency heads to petition for reclassification of policy-influencing roles, mandates performance bonus pools for these employees, and amends civil service rules to exempt them from standard adverse action procedures.