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The End Welfare for Noncitizens Act (S3670) is an early-stage bill that would eliminate federal SNAP and Medicaid for non-citizens. If enacted, it directly reduces consumer spending at Walmart and Kroger and cuts managed care premium revenue at UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health. The bill is in the Senate Finance Committee with only three sponsors and no House companion, making near-term passage unlikely, but the sector-specific risk is real and measurable.
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Real market data shows Walmart ($WMT at $131.31, up 5.7% over 30 days) and Kroger ($KR at $68.32, down 5.6% over 30 days) are already diverging. WMT's strong 30-day run near its 52-week high makes it more vulnerable to negative legislative headlines. Kroger's relative weakness suggests the market is already pricing in structural grocery margin pressure. UnitedHealth ($UNH at $368.19, +36% in 30 days) and CVS ($CVS at $83.74, +16.6% in 30 days) have rallied sharply, partially on sector rotation into managed care. Any step that advances S3670—especially a committee hearing or amendment to a must-pass bill—would likely trigger profit-taking in these stocks, as the revenue impact (an estimated $500M-$1.5B across these four companies) is material relative to current market caps.
The End Welfare for Noncitizens Act (S3670), introduced January 15, 2026, by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) with two cosponsors, prohibits any federal funds from providing TANF, Medicaid, or SNAP benefits to refugees, asylees, or illegal immigrants. The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Finance—its first and only action—with no further legislative movement in nearly four months.
The bill carries zero authorized spending; it is a prohibition on existing outlays. The Congressional Budget Office would need to score savings from reduced SNAP and Medicaid enrollment. Current federal law already bars most unauthorized immigrants from these programs, but refugees and asylees are generally eligible for the first 7 years after status is granted. This bill would eliminate that eligibility, directly removing a population from the benefit rolls.
Walmart and Kroger face the most direct revenue risk from SNAP cuts. Walmart processes roughly 1 in every 4 SNAP dollars nationally. Kroger, as a top-5 SNAP retailer, faces proportional exposure. On the healthcare side, UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health derive significant premium revenue from Medicaid managed care; non-citizen disenrollment compresses their government segment top line. Notably, UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) has rallied 36% over the past 30 days to $368.19, near its 52-week high of $411.99, partly on broader market momentum and managed care sentiment. CVS has also risen 16.6% in 30 days to $83.74, approaching its year high of $85.15. Both stocks are at elevated levels, increasing downside risk if negative legislative news gains traction. Walmart is up 5.7% in 30 days at $131.31 near its 52-week high, while Kroger is actually down 5.6% over 30 days at $68.32, already underperforming.
Legislative velocity is low: one introduction, one committee referral, zero hearings. Three Republican sponsors—none of whom sit on Senate Finance except Sen. Cassidy—provide limited momentum. A House companion bill does not exist. For the bill to advance, it needs Finance Committee markup, full Senate passage, House passage, and presidential signature. In the current 119th Congress with a narrow Senate majority, highly restrictive immigration-related benefit cuts face steep procedural and political hurdles. The bill is likely to remain in committee unless attached as a rider to must-pass legislation; that risk, while real, is not imminent.
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
Multiple independent sources confirm this signal’s market thesis
What the bill does
Elimination of SNAP benefits for all non-citizens (refugees, asylees, illegal immigrants), removing a direct source of consumer purchasing power for staple goods.
Who must act
The USDA Food and Nutrition Service administering SNAP; non-citizen households receiving SNAP benefits at Walmart.
What happens
SNAP-subsidized demand at Walmart's US grocery business declines. Non-citizen households currently receiving SNAP lose those funds, reducing their in-store spend on food and essentials.
Stock impact
Walmart is the largest US grocer by revenue and the #1 SNAP retailer. SNAP represents an estimated 3-5% of US grocery sales. A reduction in SNAP recipients directly trims same-store sales in the grocery category, a high-margin traffic driver.
What the bill does
Elimination of SNAP benefits for all non-citizens, reducing consumer purchasing power for food at Kroger stores.
Who must act
The USDA Food and Nutrition Service; non-citizen households currently redeeming SNAP at Kroger locations.
What happens
Loss of SNAP-subsidized food purchases by non-citizen households, reducing top-line grocery revenue at Kroger's ~2,700 US stores.
Stock impact
Kroger is a top SNAP retailer. Any cut to the SNAP recipient base reduces foot traffic and basket size in its core supermarket business, which is highly dependent on low-margin grocery volume.
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
COLAs Don’t Count Act of 2026
Keep SNAP and WIC Funded Act of 2025
To amend the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 to restrict the eligibility of aliens to receive supplemental nutrition assistance program benefits to aliens admitted to the United States as lawful permanent residents and who thereafter lawfully reside in the United States for at least 10 years.
Restoring Food Security for American Families and Farmers Act of 2025
Executive orders & memoranda affecting the same sectors or companies
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This executive order directs the Federal Housing Finance Agency to create pilot programs for automatic cancellation of mortgage insurance when borrowers have sufficient equity, and to expand a title insurance pilot to reduce costs for refinancing. It establishes a task force to promote manufactured housing by standardizing permits and reducing regulatory barriers. It also orders the Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs to reduce interest rates on direct home loans.
This executive order establishes a Women's Health Division within the NIH to coordinate and accelerate research on understudied women's health conditions, and creates a White House Women's Health Task Force to drive policy reforms and translation of research into clinical practice across federal agencies. It directs specific agencies to prioritize research, data collection, and translation into prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, with a focus on all life stages from infancy through aging.
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