National Prescribed Fire Act of 2025

**What Happened:** The National Prescribed Fire Act of 2025 (S.2015), sponsored by Sen. Wyden (D-OR) with 5 cosponsors, has been ordered favorably reported out of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee (Dec 17, 2025). The bill mandates that USDA and Interior increase prescribed fire acreage by 10% annually for 10 years on federal lands, with emphasis on the western and southeastern US. A companion bill (HR3889) exists in the House. The bill is awaiting floor action in the Senate. **The Money Trail:** This is an authorization bill — it sets a policy mandate but does NOT appropriate specific funding. The bill's Collaborative Prescribed Fire Program authorizes financial assistance to eligible entities, but actual dollars require a separate appropriations bill. There is NO explicit funding amount in the bill text. The market impact depends on future appropriations. However, the mandate itself is legally binding — agencies and contractors must find resources to comply, which historically drives equipment procurement via existing program budgets. **Structural Winners:** The mandate creates a compounding 10-year demand curve. CAT is the clearest beneficiary as the dominant supplier of large bulldozers and forestry tractors used in land clearing and firebreak construction. DE has forestry equipment exposure but it's a smaller share of their business. CMI benefits indirectly through engine supply to OEMs. LPX (Louisiana-Pacific) has limited direct exposure — prescribed fire helps reduce catastrophic wildfire risk to timber supply, but the bill doesn't directly boost lumber demand. **Recent Price Trends (Real Data):** CAT current $817.87 (52-wk high $845.27) has rallied 17.6% in 30 days, closing from $770.17 on Apr 15 to $817.87 on Apr 28. CMI surged 22.8% in 30 days from $601.46 to $642.45. DE lagged at -0.49% over 30 days. The broader move in CAT and CMI may partly reflect the Apr 20 Presidential Memorandum on Defense Production Act for energy infrastructure, which accelerates large energy projects requiring heavy equipment — this is additive to the prescribed fire thesis. **Timeline:** S.2015 has cleared committee but needs Senate floor vote, House passage (HR3889 is in committee), and presidential signature. With bipartisan sponsorship (Wyden, D-OR + Budd, R-NC) and companion bill, passage probability is moderate in the current Congress. Full 10-year ramp would begin upon enactment.