billSJRES118•Thursday, March 5, 2026Analyzed

A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.

Neutral

Impact4/10

Lockheed Martin ($LMT)RTX Corporation ($RTX)Boeing ($BA)Northrop Grumman ($NOC)Exxon Mobil ($XOM)Chevron ($CVX)$BP Defense Energy

Summary

S.J. Res. 118, aiming to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran, failed to advance in the Senate, indicating continued geopolitical risk premiums. Defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin and RTX, have seen recent positive 7-day price changes, while major energy companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron experienced negative 7-day changes.

Key Takeaways

1.S.J. Res. 118, aiming to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran, failed to advance in the Senate on March 18, 2026.
2.The rejection of the resolution maintains the status quo regarding U.S. military involvement in Iran, preserving geopolitical risk premiums.
3.Defense contractors ($LMT, $RTX, $BA, $NOC) are not facing immediate revenue reductions from this legislative action, while energy companies ($XOM, $CVX, $BP) continue to operate with existing geopolitical risk factors.

Market Implications

The failure of S.J. Res. 118 to pass the Senate means that the anticipated reduction in demand for military hardware and services will not occur due to this specific legislative effort. Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin ($LMT), RTX Corporation ($RTX), The Boeing Company ($BA), and Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC) will continue to operate under existing conditions, without the immediate threat of reduced government contracts related to Iranian hostilities. Over the past 7 days, these defense stocks have shown positive price changes, with $BA up +12.2%, $LMT up +6.57%, $RTX up +6.02%, and $NOC up +3.6%. For energy companies, the continued U.S. military involvement in Iran means that geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices are likely to persist. This prevents a potential reduction in volatility and prices that the resolution aimed to achieve. Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM) and Chevron Corporation ($CVX) have seen negative 7-day changes of -4.72% and -5.62% respectively, while BP p.l.c. ($BP) had a slight positive change of +0.27%. The broader 30-day trend for energy stocks has been positive, suggesting other market factors are currently outweighing the specific geopolitical risk from Iran.

Full Analysis

S.J. Res. 118, introduced on March 5, 2026, sought to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. The resolution's latest action on March 18, 2026, saw a motion to discharge it from the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations rejected by a Yea-Nay Vote of 47-53. This indicates that the resolution will not proceed in its current form, maintaining the status quo regarding U.S. military involvement in Iran. This bill does not authorize or appropriate any specific funding. Its purpose is to mandate a change in military policy, which would indirectly affect government spending on military operations and procurement. The rejection of the motion to discharge means the legislative effort to reduce military engagement in Iran has stalled, and therefore, the anticipated reduction in demand for military hardware and lowering of geopolitical risk premiums on oil will not materialize through this specific legislative action. Structural winners from the continued U.S. military presence and associated geopolitical risks include defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin ($LMT), RTX Corporation ($RTX), The Boeing Company ($BA), and Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC). These companies are primary suppliers of military hardware and services. Conversely, energy companies like Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM), Chevron Corporation ($CVX), and BP p.l.c. ($BP) are structurally exposed to geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices, which would have been reduced if the resolution had passed. The failure of the resolution means these premiums are likely to persist. In the past 7 days, Lockheed Martin ($LMT) increased by +6.57%, RTX Corporation ($RTX) by +6.02%, The Boeing Company ($BA) by +12.2%, and Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC) by +3.6%. Over the same period, Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM) decreased by -4.72%, Chevron Corporation ($CVX) by -5.62%, and BP p.l.c. ($BP) showed a slight increase of +0.27%. These recent movements suggest a short-term positive trend for defense stocks and a mixed to negative trend for energy stocks, despite the resolution's failure to advance. The 30-day changes show a different picture, with defense stocks generally down and energy stocks up, indicating recent volatility. Since the motion to discharge the bill from committee was rejected, S.J. Res. 118 is effectively stalled. There are no immediate legislative steps remaining for this specific resolution. Related bills, S.J. Res. 104 and S.J. Res. 114, also addressing the removal of U.S. forces from Iran, have similarly failed to advance or are still in committee, indicating a broader lack of legislative momentum for this policy change.