billSJRES114•Thursday, March 5, 2026Analyzed

A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.

Neutral

Impact4/10

Lockheed Martin ($LMT)RTX Corporation ($RTX)Boeing ($BA)Northrop Grumman ($NOC)Exxon Mobil ($XOM)Chevron ($CVX)Defense Energy

Summary

S.J. Res. 114, which directs the removal of U.S. Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran, is in the early stage of legislative process, having been referred to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. This bill, if enacted, would reduce military engagement, potentially impacting defense contractors and oil prices. Related bills with similar objectives have failed to advance past committee discharge votes.

Key Takeaways

1.S.J. Res. 114 is in the early legislative stage, referred to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
2.The bill mandates the removal of U.S. Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran, which would reduce military engagement.
3.Defense contractors ($LMT, $RTX, $BA, $NOC) could see reduced demand, while oil companies ($XOM, $CVX) could benefit from regional de-escalation.
4.Related bills have previously failed to advance, suggesting a challenging path for S.J. Res. 114.

Market Implications

The direct impact on defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corporation ($LMT), RTX Corporation ($RTX), The Boeing Company ($BA), and Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC) would be a reduction in potential future contracts related to the specific hostilities in Iran. While these companies have shown positive 7-day performance, their 30-day performance is negative, suggesting broader market factors are currently at play, not this specific bill. For oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM) and Chevron Corporation ($CVX), a de-escalation of conflict could lead to a more stable geopolitical environment, potentially reducing risk premiums on oil, although their recent 7-day performance is negative despite positive 30-day trends. Given the bill's early stage and the failure of similar resolutions, immediate market shifts based on S.J. Res. 114 are unlikely.

Full Analysis

S.J. Res. 114, introduced by Senator Baldwin on March 5, 2026, aims to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. The bill was read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations, indicating it is in the early stages of the legislative process. The bill explicitly states that Congress has not declared war on Iran or authorized military force, and that recent airstrikes ordered by President Trump constitute unauthorized hostilities under the War Powers Resolution. This joint resolution does not authorize or appropriate any specific funding. Its primary mechanism is to mandate the withdrawal of U.S. Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities. This action would directly reduce the scope of military operations, which could decrease demand for defense-related products and services. Conversely, a de-escalation of conflict in the Middle East could lead to increased stability in global oil markets. Structural winners and losers are primarily tied to the defense and energy sectors. Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corporation ($LMT), RTX Corporation ($RTX), The Boeing Company ($BA), and Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC) would face reduced demand for military hardware and support services if U.S. military engagement is curtailed. Conversely, oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corporation ($XOM) and Chevron Corporation ($CVX) could benefit from increased stability and potentially lower geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices, although the immediate impact on oil prices is complex and depends on broader market dynamics. Recent market data shows mixed performance across these sectors. Over the past 7 days, defense contractors $LMT (+6.57%), $RTX (+6.02%), $BA (+12.2%), and $NOC (+3.6%) have seen positive changes. However, over the past 30 days, these same companies have experienced declines: $LMT (-2.61%), $RTX (-2.67%), $BA (-4.4%), and $NOC (-5.98%). Oil companies $XOM (-4.72%) and $CVX (-5.62%) have seen negative 7-day changes, but positive 30-day changes ($XOM +8.36%, $CVX +4.72%). The current market movements do not directly reflect the potential impact of this specific bill, given its early legislative stage. For S.J. Res. 114 to advance, it must pass through the Committee on Foreign Relations, be voted on by the full Senate, and then pass the House of Representatives before being sent to the President. Related bills (S.J. Res. 118, S.J. Res. 104, S.J. Res. 116) with similar objectives have previously failed to pass motions to discharge from the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, indicating significant legislative hurdles for this type of resolution.