A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.
Summary
S.J.Res.115 is a procedural bill with zero near-term passage probability. Three identical prior resolutions were killed by cloture votes of 47-53. The 10-17% declines in defense primes over 30 days are driven by broader sector rotation, not this legislation. The bill's market impact is negligible unless it reaches the floor, which it will not.
See which stocks are affected
Key takeaways, market implications, full AI analysis, and connected signals are available to HillSignal members.
Already have an account? Log in
Key Takeaways
- 1.S.J.Res.115 has zero near-term passage probability — three identical prior resolutions failed cloture votes in the same Congress.
- 2.Defense prime declines of 10-17% over 30 days are driven by sector rotation, not this legislation.
- 3.The bill contains no funding authorization — it is a purely directive joint resolution with no appropriations impact.
- 4.No actionable market catalyst here for retail investors; ignore this bill for trading decisions.
Market Implications
This bill provides no actionable market signal. Defense primes LMT ($510.42), NOC ($575.07), and GD ($340.46) are moving on macro rotation and earnings narratives, not legislative risk from a dead-on-arrival resolution. The 30-day declines of -15.55% for LMT and -15.71% for NOC reflect profit-taking after extended defense outperformance, plus concerns about potential defense budget flatlining in FY2027 negotiations. GD's +8.7% 7-day spike indicates company-specific catalysts. Do not trade these names based on S.J.Res.115. The three prior identical bills being killed by identical cloture vote margins creates a track record of predictable failure.
Full Analysis
What happened: Senator Murphy (D-CT) introduced S.J.Res.115 on March 5, 2026, directing the President to remove US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities within or against Iran. The bill has been referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where it is in early legislative stages. Its status is procedurally dead: three identical prior resolutions (S.J.Res.104, 114, 116) were killed by cloture votes on motions to discharge, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold with margins of 47-53, 46-51, and 47-53 respectively. This iteration faces identical partisan dynamics. No funding is authorized or appropriated by this joint resolution—it is a purely directive legislative vehicle with no money attached. The causal chain between this bill and defense prime revenue is indirect: if enacted, the cessation of combat operations would slow munitions replenishment rates and reduce operational tempo for theater support contracts. However, the White House has current military authorization under the 2001 AUMF and the President's Article II authority to defend US personnel. The bill's findings explicitly note Operation Epic Fury was launched on February 28, 2026. The legislative path to enactment requires: (1) discharge from committee (requires 60 votes), (2) passage in the Senate (simple majority), (3) passage in the Republican-controlled House, and (4) Presidential signature or veto override. All three prior identical resolutions failed at step one. Real market data shows defense primes LMT (-15.55% 30-day), NOC (-15.71% 30-day), GD (-0.81% 30-day), and RTX (not provided) have declined significantly over 30 days, but this is driven by sector rotation out of defense, not by this bill. GD's +8.7% 7-day move reflects a separate catalyst. The April 20 DPA energy memoranda referenced in the prompt are unrelated to this bill and not analyzed here.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
No confirming evidence found yet from contracts, insider trades, or congressional activity
What the bill does
Joint resolution directing removal of US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran; if enacted, would require cessation of offensive military operations against Iran, reducing operational tempo and munitions consumption.
Who must act
President of the United States, acting as Commander-in-Chief, must withdraw US Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Iran not authorized by Congress.
What happens
Cessation of active combat operations would reduce demand for precision-guided munitions, missile defense interceptors, and aircraft sustainment spares consumed in operations over Iran.
Stock impact
Lockheed Martin's Missiles and Fire Control segment (25% of 2025 revenue) produces ATACMS, JASSM, LRASM, and PAC-3 interceptors; reduced operational expenditure would slow replenishment rates for munitions stockpiles, lowering near-term production volume expectations.
What the bill does
Joint resolution directing removal of US Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in Iran; if enacted, would require cessation of offensive military operations against Iran, reducing operational tempo and munitions consumption.
Who must act
President of the United States, acting as Commander-in-Chief, must withdraw US Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Iran not authorized by Congress.
What happens
Cessation of active combat operations would reduce demand for precision-guided munitions and missile defense interceptors consumed in operations over Iran.
Stock impact
Northrop Grumman's Defense Systems segment produces guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) and advanced warheads; reduced operational tempo would slow replenishment orders for expendable munitions, lowering near-term production volume expectations.
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
Secure America Act
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
Making appropriations for national security, Department of State, and related programs for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2027, and for other purposes.
Making further consolidated appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, and for other purposes.
To provide for a limitation on the transfer of defense articles and defense services to Israel.
Streamlining Procurement for Effective Execution and Delivery and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
Federal Acquisition Security Council Improvement Act of 2026
Related Presidential Actions
Executive orders & memoranda affecting the same sectors or companies
Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 101 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials
This memorandum invokes the Defense Production Act (DPA) Section 101 to declare that recoverable critical minerals and materials (such as black mass, end-of-life rare-earth magnets, and scrap) are essential to national defense and that the U.S. cannot meet defense needs without disrupting civilian markets. It directs the Secretary of Commerce to issue regulations and take actions—including priority contracts and supply-chain interventions—to rapidly expand domestic recovery and processing of these materials, while explicitly excluding copper scrap already covered by a separate proclamation.
Further Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum into the United States
This proclamation modifies the Section 232 tariff regime on aluminum imports by authorizing the Secretary of Commerce to establish a program that incentivizes new U.S. investment in primary aluminum production. Companies with approved onshoring plans can import primary aluminum at half the standard Section 232 duty rate, up to the anticipated annual output of their new or expanded facilities, with construction required to start by January 20, 2029. The action aims to boost domestic primary aluminum supply for national security and defense industrial base needs.
Securing America’s Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials
This executive order restricts waivers for foreign-sourced critical materials in defense contracts, effective January 1, 2027, and mandates that defense contractors map their supply chains from raw materials to end products, vet subcontractors for risks, and prohibit covered materials from unreliable foreign suppliers. It directs the Secretary of War to enforce strict compliance, including requiring mitigation plans for any non-compliant materials and establishing penalties for fraud or willful noncompliance.
Free — no credit card
Get the next market-moving signal before the news does
HillSignal scores every Congressional bill, federal contract, and insider filing for market impact and emails you the high-conviction ones — free, no credit card.
Weekly digest — the congressional activity that actually moved markets that week, in plain English. Free, one email.
Free forever plan · No credit card · Unsubscribe in one click
Want the live terminal too? Create a free account →