S3670

The End Welfare for Noncitizens Act (S3670), introduced January 15, 2026, by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) with two cosponsors, prohibits any federal funds from providing TANF, Medicaid, or SNAP benefits to refugees, asylees, or illegal immigrants. The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Finance—its first and only action—with no further legislative movement in nearly four months. The bill carries zero authorized spending; it is a prohibition on existing outlays. The Congressional Budget Office would need to score savings from reduced SNAP and Medicaid enrollment. Current federal law already bars most unauthorized immigrants from these programs, but refugees and asylees are generally eligible for the first 7 years after status is granted. This bill would eliminate that eligibility, directly removing a population from the benefit rolls. Walmart and Kroger face the most direct revenue risk from SNAP cuts. Walmart processes roughly 1 in every 4 SNAP dollars nationally. Kroger, as a top-5 SNAP retailer, faces proportional exposure. On the healthcare side, UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health derive significant premium revenue from Medicaid managed care; non-citizen disenrollment compresses their government segment top line. Notably, UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) has rallied 36% over the past 30 days to $368.19, near its 52-week high of $411.99, partly on broader market momentum and managed care sentiment. CVS has also risen 16.6% in 30 days to $83.74, approaching its year high of $85.15. Both stocks are at elevated levels, increasing downside risk if negative legislative news gains traction. Walmart is up 5.7% in 30 days at $131.31 near its 52-week high, while Kroger is actually down 5.6% over 30 days at $68.32, already underperforming. Legislative velocity is low: one introduction, one committee referral, zero hearings. Three Republican sponsors—none of whom sit on Senate Finance except Sen. Cassidy—provide limited momentum. A House companion bill does not exist. For the bill to advance, it needs Finance Committee markup, full Senate passage, House passage, and presidential signature. In the current 119th Congress with a narrow Senate majority, highly restrictive immigration-related benefit cuts face steep procedural and political hurdles. The bill is likely to remain in committee unless attached as a rider to must-pass legislation; that risk, while real, is not imminent.