HR7004

The 'Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026' (HR7004) was introduced on January 9, 2026, by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) with 45 cosponsors, all Democrats. The bill is in the earliest legislative stage — referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and the Committee on House Administration. The bill prohibits federal elected officials, congressional employees, political appointees, and executive agency employees from trading prediction market contracts if they possess material nonpublic information. This directly restricts a segment of the potential user base for prediction market platforms. There is no authorized funding in this bill — it is a prohibitory regulatory measure, not a spending bill. The legislative path requires committee hearings, markup, House floor vote, Senate passage, and presidential action. With only Democratic cosponsors in a divided 119th Congress (Republican House majority), passage probability is extremely low in its current form. The bill has had zero actions since its introduction referral, indicating stalled momentum. The primary affected company is CME Group ($CME), which launched CFTC-regulated event contracts in 2024. However, CME's event contract business is a tiny fraction of its total revenue (the company generated ~$6.1B in 2025 revenue from futures/options on interest rates, equities, FX, and commodities). Even if fully enacted, the revenue impact on CME would be negligible, as prediction market contracts are a small product line and federal employees represent a small subset of potential participants. Real market data shows $CME at $287.01 as of April 30, 2026, within its 52-week range of $257.17–$329.16. The stock is down 2.82% over the last 30 days, reflecting broader market conditions rather than this specific bill. The 7-day change of +0.68% shows mild recent recovery. No market reaction to this bill is observable in price data.