HR1366

1) WHAT HAPPENED: HR 1366, the Mining Regulatory Clarity Act, was introduced on 2025-02-14 by Rep. Amodei (R-NV). It passed the House on 2025-11-25 (Reported Amended) and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on 2026-03-17. Companion bill S544 is also on the Senate calendar. This is active legislation with a clear path to a floor vote in the Senate — it is NOT stuck in committee. The bill amends Section 2337 of the Revised Statutes (30 U.S.C. 42) to explicitly allow mining operators to locate and include within a plan of operations as many mill sites as are reasonably necessary for waste rock or tailings disposal on public land, including non-mineralized federal land. This directly overrides the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit's 2022 decision in the Rosemont Copper Mine case, which had held that mill site claims could only be located on land with established mineral validity. That decision shut down the permitting of new tailings storage areas on federal land across the western US. 2) THE MONEY TRAIL: This is a regulatory relief bill, not an appropriations bill. It authorizes zero dollars in direct federal spending. It does, however, establish the Abandoned Hardrock Mine Fund (funded separately through fees on mining claims, not general revenue). The economic value is in the removal of a permitting bottleneck that has delayed billions in capital investment. Resolution Copper alone represents ~$5-7B in development capex over 5-7 years; FCX's Lone Star expansion is ~$1-2B. The mechanism is purely regulatory: by clarifying that mill site claims can be located on any public land within a plan of operations, the bill restores the pre-2022 status quo for waste disposal permitting. 3) STRUCTURAL WINNERS AND LOSERS: WINNERS are US-focused copper miners with federal land permits stuck in limbo. FCX is the clearest beneficiary: its Bagdad mine (Arizona) and Lone Star expansion (Arizona) both require federal tailings storage. Resolution Copper (55% FCX, 45% BHP) is the single largest impacted project — a 400,000+ ton-per-year copper mine that has been stalled for a decade. SCCO holds undeveloped Arizona assets that become more viable. BHP gains clarity on its Resolution stake and on its broader US copper strategy. RIO is included but has less direct exposure at Kennecott (existing permitted facilities). LOSERS are environmental NGOs that opposed the Rosemont decision; the bill removes their primary legal tool for blocking mining waste permits on federal land. There are no publicly traded companies that are structurally harmed by this bill — it is universally positive for the US mining sector. 4) REAL MARKET DATA ANALYSIS: FCX closed at $57.34 on 2026-04-30, down -6.08% in 7 days and -2.45% in 30 days. The stock has sold off hard from the April 17 close of $70.21 (-18.3% in 13 trading days). This is a broad commodity selloff, not company-specific. The bill is a fundamental catalyst that de-risks FCX's long-term growth pipeline. SCCO at $169.42 is down -6.1% in 7 days and -1.53% in 30 days from its April 17 close of $194.32. BHP at $78.71 is actually up +8.21% in 30 days despite the -1.39% 7-day pullback, benefiting from broader diversification. The timing of the Senate calendar consideration against this commodity selloff presents a potential asymmetric opportunity: the regulatory catalyst is real and structurally de-risking, while the recent price decline is cyclical/tactical. 5) TIMELINE: HR 1366 is on the Senate Legislative Calendar as of 2026-03-17 (Calendar No. 357). It has already passed the House. The only remaining steps are: (a) Senate floor vote — can be called by Majority Leader Schumer at any time or attached as an amendment to must-pass legislation (NDAA, appropriations); (b) if passed, a House-Senate conference if the Senate amends it; (c) Presidential signature. Given the bipartisan support in the House (cosponsors include Rep. Horsford, D-NV) and the companion bill S544 on the Senate calendar, passage odds are above 50% in this Congress. The 119th Congress runs through January 2027.