The Treat and Reduce Obesity Act of 2025 would mandate Medicare Part D coverage of GLP-1 obesity drugs, unlocking a massive new payer market of ~27 million beneficiaries. $NVO and $LLY are the two direct beneficiaries. The bill is in early-stage committee referral with 22 bipartisan cosponsors; no companion bill has passed the House yet. Real market data shows $NVO gaining 15.56% over 30 days vs $LLY's +0.7%, suggesting the market may be overweighting Novo's near-term Medicare exposure given its larger U.S. obesity market share.
→ Unlocks ~27 million Medicare beneficiaries as new addressable patient population for GLP-1 drugs, potentially doubling the insured market for anti-obesity medications in the U.S.