AI Chip Export Controls

Where it stands

Each step compares the last four complete quarters with the two years before. A theme usually moves left to right: companies push, Congress and the White House act, the government buys, and markets respond.

1. 1. Companies pushing
   Rising

   52 companies and groups lobbied on it in Q2 2026, against 32 a year earlier.

2. 2. Congress
   Rising

   7 bills introduced and 0 became law in the last four quarters, against 3 and 0 a year before that.

3. 3. White House and agencies
   Falling

   0 proposed rules, 1 final rule and 0 presidential actions in the last four quarters, against 7 a year before that.

4. 4. Government buying
   Quiet

   Not counted: export rules are set by the Commerce Department, not bought, so federal purchase notices do not show this theme.

5. 5. Markets
   Falling

   0 insider purchases in the theme's companies in the last four quarters, against 2 a year before that. Their stocks: +139% over the same year, against +14% for the S&P 500. Among the 50 largest holdings of the funds we track, these stocks were worth $3185.5B at the end of Q1 2026, against $1392.0B a year earlier; the figure moves with prices and with how many funds rank them that high.

The setup

The US government is rapidly escalating its efforts to control the export of advanced AI chips and related technology, primarily targeting China. A series of House bills, many passing committee with overwhelming bipartisan support, are moving to accelerate sanctions, expand control scope, and enhance enforcement mechanisms. This legislative push aims to prevent China's technological dominance in chip manufacturing and secure critical supply chains.

How this developed

1. Nov 19, 2025Senate introduces S3200, the License Monopoly Prevention Act, to review exclusive export licenses for emerging tech to Entity List entities.Bill
2. Nov 28, 2025House introduces HR6322, the Stop Stealing our Chips Act, establishing a whistleblower program for AI chip export control violations.Bill
3. Jan 13, 2026House passes H.R. 2683, the Remote Access Security Act, expanding export controls to remote access of dual-use items.Bill
4. Apr 22, 2026House Foreign Affairs passes HR8169, accelerating Entity List changes to 30-45 days, impacting China-exposed semiconductor firms.Bill
5. Apr 22, 2026House Foreign Affairs passes HR6058, the STRIDE Act, to coordinate with allies on semiconductor supply chain security against China.Bill
6. Apr 22, 2026House Foreign Affairs passes HR8036, expanding interagency authority for export control rule changes and mandating China military-civil fusion review.Bill
7. May 21, 2026Senate passes S.1473, the Stop Stealing our Chips Act, creating a whistleblower program for AI chip export control violations.Bill
8. Jun 24, 2026Senator Tim Scott introduces S4882 to secure ICT supply chains through export control amendments, complementing a recent EO on post-quantum cryptography.Bill

The full story, year by year

* Year to date. Lobbying is the most companies and groups naming the theme in any one quarter. Insider buys are officer and director open-market purchases in NVDA, AMD, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC. Fund holdings are the value of these companies among the top 50 positions of the funds whose 13F filings we track, at the latest quarter of each year. Stock returns are an equal-weight basket of the same companies with prices on file, split-adjusted, without dividends, against the S&P 500 over the same quarters.

• Lobbying before 2025 is still loading for this theme, so earlier years undercount.
• Lobbying reports for Q3 2026 are still being filed, so the comparison uses Q2 2026.

Why it matters

• Multiple bills (E4, E5, E6) passed House Foreign Affairs on the same day (April 22, 2026) with unanimous or near-unanimous bipartisan support, indicating a strong, unified legislative push to tighten AI chip export controls.
• HR8169 (E4) will dramatically accelerate China tech sanctions by mandating 30-45 day votes on Entity List changes, posing immediate revenue risk for companies like NVDA, QCOM, and ASML.
• The Remote Access Security Act (E3) expands export controls to remote access, creating a compliance-driven upgrade cycle for zero-trust and cybersecurity vendors like PANW, CRWD, and ZS, with estimated annual spending increases of $100M-$400M per vendor.
• The STRIDE Act (E5) codifies policy to coordinate with allies on semiconductor supply chain security, signaling a multilateral approach to prevent China's technological dominance and impacting equipment makers like LRCX, AMAT, and KLAC.

Companies exposed to this theme

The record · 8 items, oldest first

• Nov 19, 2025BillLicense Monopoly Prevention Act of 2025
• Nov 28, 2025BillStop Stealing our Chips Act
• Jan 13, 2026BillRemote Access Security Act
• Apr 22, 2026BillTo amend the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 to provide for expedited consideration of proposals for additions to, removals from, or other modifications with respect to entities on the Entity List, and for other purposes.
• Apr 22, 2026BillSTRIDE Act
• Apr 22, 2026BillInteragency Coordination in Export Controls Act of 2026
• May 21, 2026BillStop Stealing our Chips Act
• Jun 24, 2026BillA bill to amend the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 to provide for the security of information and communications technology and services supply chains, and for other purposes.

Some keyword matches were judged unrelated to this theme and are excluded from the record above.

How this story evolved

• Oct 16, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement against China.

  The US government is rapidly escalating its efforts to control the export of advanced AI chips and related technology, primarily targeting China. A series of House bills, many passing committee with overwhelming bipartisan support, are moving to accelerate sanctions, expand control scope, and enhance enforcement mechanisms. This legislative push aims to prevent China's technological dominance in chip manufacturing and secure critical supply chains.

• Oct 15, 2026, 5:13 AM ETreal239 recordslatest record Oct 13, 2026

  DOD agencies are systematically applying export controls to a wide range of military and dual-use technologies, including AI-related content.

  US Department of Defense agencies are increasingly implementing export controls on technical data and hardware across various programs. This trend is evident in numerous procurement and sources sought notices, indicating a systematic effort to restrict access to sensitive information and components. The controls apply to both military-specific items and technologies with potential dual-use applications, including AI-related content.

• Oct 14, 2026, 5:13 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement, with Senate support emerging.

  The US government is rapidly advancing legislation to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and related technologies, driven by bipartisan consensus in the House. This push aims to prevent China's technological dominance and secure critical supply chains, with several bills moving through Congress in quick succession. The focus is on accelerating sanctions, enhancing enforcement, and coordinating with allies.

• Oct 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement, with Senate support emerging.

  The US government is rapidly advancing legislation to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and related technologies, driven by bipartisan consensus in the House. This push aims to prevent China's technological dominance and secure critical supply chains, with several bills moving through Congress in quick succession. The focus is on accelerating sanctions, enhancing enforcement, and coordinating with allies.

• Oct 12, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement, with Senate support emerging.

  The US government is rapidly advancing legislation to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and related technologies, driven by bipartisan consensus in the House. This push aims to prevent China's technological dominance and secure critical supply chains, with several bills moving through Congress in quick succession. The focus is on accelerating sanctions, enhancing enforcement, and coordinating with allies.

• Oct 11, 2026, 5:13 AM ETreal244 recordslatest record Oct 9, 2026

  DOD agencies are increasingly applying export controls to a wide range of military components, including AI-related systems.

  The US government, primarily through the Department of Defense, is systematically expanding the application of export controls to a broad spectrum of military and dual-use components. This trend is evident across various procurement notices, indicating a heightened focus on safeguarding sensitive technologies, including those related to Artificial Intelligence. The earliest explicit mention of AI and export controls together appears in a NASA notice, but the DOD's consistent inclusion of export control requirements in its solicitations highlights a broader, ongoing effort.

• Oct 10, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement, with Senate support emerging.

  The US government is rapidly advancing legislation to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and related technologies, driven by bipartisan consensus in the House. This push aims to prevent China's technological dominance and secure critical supply chains, with several bills moving through Congress in quick succession. The focus is on accelerating sanctions, enhancing enforcement, and coordinating with allies.

• Oct 9, 2026, 5:12 AM ETmixed239 recordslatest record Oct 7, 2026

  NASA's COSMOS program integrates AI memos and export controls, while DoD applies export controls to various military components.

  The US government is increasingly integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) considerations into its space and defense programs, while simultaneously applying export controls to a range of military components. This dual focus highlights a strategic effort to leverage advanced technologies while safeguarding sensitive information and hardware. The earliest evidence of this trend appears in late 2024 with NASA's COSMOS program.

• Oct 8, 2026, 5:12 AM ETnoise227 recordslatest record Oct 6, 2026

  No clear US government action on AI chip export controls; keyword collisions found in defense procurement notices.

  The provided evidence, primarily consisting of Department of Defense procurement notices, does not indicate a concerted US government effort regarding AI chip export controls. Instead, the term "export control" appears in various contexts related to technical data packages or specific military components, often as a standard regulatory requirement rather than a new policy initiative. The mentions of "AI" are also incidental, appearing in a NASA RFI for spaceflight operations and a structural panel for aircraft, not directly linked to chip technology or export policy.

• Oct 7, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal223 recordslatest record Oct 5, 2026

  DOD increasingly flags export controls on military hardware, including AI-related components, with NASA also applying controls to AI documents.

  The US government is systematically applying export controls to a widening array of military hardware and related technical data, including components for aircraft, armored vehicles, and even AI-related documents. This trend is driven primarily by the Department of Defense (DOD) and NASA, indicating a concerted effort to safeguard sensitive technologies. The earliest evidence of this specific focus on export controls within procurement notices dates back to late 2024.

• Oct 6, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal1260 recordslatest record Oct 5, 2026

  Congress expands AI chip export controls to remote access, creating new compliance burdens and cybersecurity opportunities.

  The US government is expanding its control over advanced AI chips, moving beyond physical exports to include remote access to dual-use items. This shift, driven by legislative action, mandates stricter security protocols for cloud and remote connections, creating new compliance requirements for companies and opportunities for cybersecurity vendors.

• Oct 5, 2026, 5:12 AM ETreal4 recordslatest record Sep 16, 2026

  House advances multiple bills to accelerate AI chip export controls and strengthen enforcement, with Senate support emerging.

  The US government is rapidly advancing legislation to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and related technologies, driven by bipartisan consensus in the House. This push aims to prevent China's technological dominance and secure critical supply chains, with several bills moving through Congress in quick succession. The focus is on accelerating sanctions, enhancing enforcement, and coordinating with allies.