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HR10109, introduced by Rep. Baumgartner, would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit wildfire event contracts on prediction markets. The bill is in early legislative stages with no direct impact on publicly traded companies.
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There are no market implications for publicly traded companies. The bill is too early-stage and narrow in scope to influence any sector or stock.
On August 17, 2026, Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) introduced HR10109, a bill to ban prediction market contracts on wildfire events. The bill was referred to the House Agriculture and Judiciary Committees. As an early-stage bill with no cosponsors, it faces a long legislative path. The bill does not authorize any funding or create any spending programs. Its primary effect would be on prediction market operators, which are predominantly private companies (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket). No publicly traded companies are directly affected. The agriculture sector companies listed in the enrichment data (Deere, CF, Corteva, etc.) are not impacted by this bill, as it targets financial contracts, not agricultural operations. The legislative timeline is uncertain; committee hearings and markups would be the next steps. Given the procedural stage and lack of direct public company exposure, the market impact is negligible.
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
To reaffirm the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority to enforce prohibited activity on prediction markets.
Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act
Congressional Prediction Market Ban Act of 2026
PREDICT Act
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