Gas Tax Suspension Act

What happened: On May 11, 2026, Senator Hawley (R-MO) introduced S. 4485, the Gas Tax Suspension Act, which would zero out the federal excise tax on gasoline (18.4 cents/gallon) and diesel (24.4 cents/gallon) for 90 days, extendable to 180 days at the President's discretion. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Finance Committee — a standard early-stage referral. It has one cosponsor, indicating low legislative momentum. The companion House bill HR 8753 (Gas Tax Relief Act) is similarly early stage, referred to Ways and Means. Neither bill has a committee hearing or markup scheduled. The money trail: The bill does NOT authorize new spending. It reduces federal tax revenue by an estimated $15-20 billion (based on CBO scoring precedent for 2022 gas tax holiday proposals). It includes a provision directing the Treasury to transfer funds from the general fund to the Highway Trust Fund and Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund to offset lost revenue, but this is a paper transaction — no specific funding source is identified. The bill is an authorization of a tax expenditure, not an appropriation. Actual implementation requires either deficit spending or a separate offset. Structural winners and losers: Refiners and marketers ($PSX, $VLO) face a modestly bearish dynamic — the tax suspension is a cost reduction that is competed away to consumers in a competitive retail market, leaving margins thinner unless crude oil prices drop simultaneously. Integrated majors (, ) have diversified upstream earnings that buffer any downstream margin impact. The primary beneficiaries are consumers via lower pump prices — this is a demand stimulus, not a supply-side structural change. Oil producers ($COP, $EOG) are unaffected as the bill does not touch crude oil taxes. Midstream ($WMB, $KMI) is neutral — pipeline volumes may increase slightly but tariffs are unchanged. Competitive landscape: No real market data is provided for stock prices. Historically, 2022 gas tax holiday proposals (S. 3609) died in committee — the CBO estimated $18B in foregone revenue with no offset. Current early-stage status and lack of bipartisan cosponsors suggest low passage probability. Timeline: Senate Finance Committee consideration is not scheduled. The 119th Congress runs through Jan 2027; any tax bill requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. With a divided Congress, this bill's path to law is narrow. The earliest possible enactment would be late 2026 if included in a must-pass vehicle, but its standalone probability is below 25%.