SECURES Act of 2026

1) On February 9, 2026, Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) introduced S.3806, the SECURES Act of 2026, which directs NHTSA to issue a federal rule requiring lap-shoulder seat belts on all newly manufactured school buses. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. An identical companion, H.R. 7428, was introduced in the House and referred to the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. No further action (hearings, markups, floor votes) has occurred. The bill is in the earliest procedural stage. 2) The bill authorizes zero dollars in spending. It is a rulemaking mandate—it requires an executive agency (NHTSA) to issue a regulation. No direct grants, loan programs, or tax credits are created. Actual costs (per-bus content increase, NHTSA administrative costs) would be borne by school districts and bus manufacturers unless a separate appropriations bill provides subsidy. The Congressional Budget Office would need to score the mandate's impact, but no score has been published. 3) Structural winners in a mandate scenario are manufacturers of seat belt systems and sensors (e.g., $ALV, $AUT, $LEA), and school bus OEMs that can pass through higher ASPs (Blue Bird Corporation, privately held; Thomas Built Buses, a Daimler Truck subsidiary; IC Bus, part of Navistar/Volvo Group; Oshkosh's bus business). Oshkosh ($OSK) has exposure via its vocational segment, but school buses are a small fraction of $OSK's ~$10B revenue (defense, fire trucks, access equipment dominate). Wabash National ($WNC) is a trailer manufacturer, not a bus body builder, so direct content uplift is minimal. The pure-play school bus OEMs (Blue Bird) are not public. 4) Real market data shows $OSK at $149.65 (near mid-range of 52-week $82.14–$180.49), with a 7-day +0.84% and 30-day +6.66%, reflecting broader industrial sector strength. $WNC at $8.38 (near bottom of 52-week $6.78–$12.94), with a 7-day -3.79% and 30-day -0.36%, showing weakness independent of this bill. No price movements are attributable to the SECURES Act, which was introduced 78 days before the latest close. 5) Timeline: The bill must clear the Senate Commerce Committee and House Transportation Committee, receive floor votes in both chambers, pass in identical form, and be signed by the President. With identical bills in both chambers, the path is symmetric—but no committee action has occurred in 11 weeks. If the 119th Congress (2025–2027) does not advance it before the 2026 midterm elections (November), the bill would need to be reintroduced in the 120th Congress. NHTSA rulemaking typically takes 18–36 months after a mandate. The earliest practical impact on bus manufacturing would be model year 2029 or later.