Lowering American Energy Costs Act of 2025

S. 3545, the 'Lowering American Energy Costs Act of 2025,' was introduced on December 17, 2025 by Senator Markey and four cosponsors. It would amend the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to ban all exports of natural gas produced in the United States. The bill text explicitly bans the export of natural gas, including LNG, targeting the core operations of export terminal operators. The bill carries no authorization or appropriation of funds—it is a prohibitory regulation, not a spending bill. The legislative path is exceptionally long: it was referred to the Senate Banking Committee, remains in early procedural stages, has no floor votes scheduled, and its sole companion bill (H.R. 6851) is similarly stalled in a House committee. With only five cosponsors—all progressive Democrats—and no committee chair sponsors, the bill lacks bipartisan momentum. Structural winners under a ban scenario would be domestic natural gas consumers (utilities, industrial buyers) due to lower prices. Structural losers are pure-play LNG exporters like Cheniere Energy ($LNG) and, to a lesser degree, diversified midstream operators with export exposure. However, given the bill's low probability of passage, these are purely theoretical impacts. Real market data shows $LNG at $273.84, up +6.52% over 7 days and only -3.5% over 30 days, indicating no market concern about this legislation. The stock has bounced from its recent low of $251.07 on April 17 to a strong recovery toward its 52-week high of $300.89, driven by fundamental supply-demand dynamics, not legislative risk. Remaining legislative steps: the bill must pass the Senate Banking Committee, secure a floor vote in the Senate, pass the House, and be signed by a president who has historically supported energy exports. Each step has near-zero probability under current congressional composition.