Decreasing Russian Oil Profits Act of 2025

What happened: On December 16, 2025, Senator McCormick (R-PA) introduced S.3513, the Decreasing Russian Oil Profits Act of 2025. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. It has 5 cosponsors and a companion bill (H.R. 7506) in the House that was referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. No other actions have occurred in over four months.

The money trail: This bill carries zero direct funding authorization. It is a sanctions bill, not a spending bill. It does not authorize a single dollar of federal expenditure or tax credit. Any market impact from this legislation would be indirect and only materialize if the bill passed, which requires advancement out of committee, floor votes in both chambers, and presidential action — none of which is currently scheduled.

Structural winners and losers: An analysis of the bill text shows it would impose secondary sanctions on foreign entities that purchase, import, or facilitate transactions in Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products. The mechanism is a blocking of property and interests in property under IEEPA. The President is granted authority for up to two exception frameworks, potentially for countries that reduce Russian purchases. If enacted, this could reduce global supply of Russian crude, potentially supporting global oil prices. However, the bill does not affect US domestic oil production, US-chartered shipping, or US refiners directly. Major US oil producers (XOM, CVX), international majors (SHEL, BP), and shipping names (CMRE, ZIM) are not obligated parties under this bill — the sanctioned parties are foreign persons outside US jurisdiction.

Real market data: The provided data shows a broad energy sector decline over 30 days: XOM -9.8% to $154.67, CVX -8.78% to $192.22, SHEL -4.13% to $88.91, and BP -1.16% to $46.80. However, the 7-day trend is mixed with XOM +2.75% and CVX +2.46%, suggesting a possible short-term recovery. This price action is tied to macro factors and the April 20 DPA energy executive orders, not to S.3513 which has shown no movement since December.

Timeline: The bill remains in its earliest legislative stage — referred to committee. With no hearings, markups, or additional cosponsors since introduction, legislative momentum is near zero. The next step would require the Senate Banking Committee to hold a hearing and markup. No schedule exists. Passage during the 119th Congress (through January 2027) is possible but unlikely without a major geopolitical catalyst.