Decreasing Russian Oil Profits Act of 2025
Summary
The Decreasing Russian Oil Profits Act of 2025 (S.3513) is an early-stage Senate bill that would sanction foreign entities dealing in Russian crude oil. It carries zero funding, remains in committee since December 2025, and has no near-term market impact. The energy sector's recent weakness (XOM -9.8%, CVX -8.78% over 30 days) reflects macro conditions and the April 20 DPA energy executive orders, not this bill.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.S.3513 is a four-month-old bill with zero legislative action since introduction — no hearings, markups, or additional cosponsors
- 2.The bill carries zero funding authorization and would not directly impact US-incorporated energy or shipping companies
- 3.Recent energy sector weakness is driven by macro and DPA executive orders, not this sanctions bill
- 4.No causal chain can be drawn to any specific publicly traded company with confidence above 0.5
Market Implications
The market implications of S.3513 are effectively zero at this stage. The bill is a geopolitical signaling measure that has not advanced from committee in over four months. Energy sector investors should focus on actual market-moving forces: global crude supply/demand, OPEC+ production decisions, and the April 20 DPA energy executive orders. The 7-day data shows a short-term recovery in XOM (+2.75%) and CVX (+2.46%) that has nothing to do with this bill. ZIM (+0.5% over 30 days) and CMRE (-0.74%) show the shipping sector is also unaffected by the bill's sanctions framework since it targets foreign persons, not US-listed equities.
Full Analysis
What happened: On December 16, 2025, Senator McCormick (R-PA) introduced S.3513, the Decreasing Russian Oil Profits Act of 2025. The bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. It has 5 cosponsors and a companion bill (H.R. 7506) in the House that was referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. No other actions have occurred in over four months.
The money trail: This bill carries zero direct funding authorization. It is a sanctions bill, not a spending bill. It does not authorize a single dollar of federal expenditure or tax credit. Any market impact from this legislation would be indirect and only materialize if the bill passed, which requires advancement out of committee, floor votes in both chambers, and presidential action — none of which is currently scheduled.
Structural winners and losers: An analysis of the bill text shows it would impose secondary sanctions on foreign entities that purchase, import, or facilitate transactions in Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products. The mechanism is a blocking of property and interests in property under IEEPA. The President is granted authority for up to two exception frameworks, potentially for countries that reduce Russian purchases. If enacted, this could reduce global supply of Russian crude, potentially supporting global oil prices. However, the bill does not affect US domestic oil production, US-chartered shipping, or US refiners directly. Major US oil producers (XOM, CVX), international majors (SHEL, BP), and shipping names (CMRE, ZIM) are not obligated parties under this bill — the sanctioned parties are foreign persons outside US jurisdiction.
Real market data: The provided data shows a broad energy sector decline over 30 days: XOM -9.8% to $154.67, CVX -8.78% to $192.22, SHEL -4.13% to $88.91, and BP -1.16% to $46.80. However, the 7-day trend is mixed with XOM +2.75% and CVX +2.46%, suggesting a possible short-term recovery. This price action is tied to macro factors and the April 20 DPA energy executive orders, not to S.3513 which has shown no movement since December.
Timeline: The bill remains in its earliest legislative stage — referred to committee. With no hearings, markups, or additional cosponsors since introduction, legislative momentum is near zero. The next step would require the Senate Banking Committee to hold a hearing and markup. No schedule exists. Passage during the 119th Congress (through January 2027) is possible but unlikely without a major geopolitical catalyst.
Intelligence Surface
Cross-referenced against federal contracts, SEC insider filings & congressional trade disclosures
Some confirming evidence found across public data sources
Connected Signals
Matched on shared policy language across AI analyses, with ticker & timing weight
HANFORD TANK WASTE OPERATIONS & CLOSURE, LLC: $1.4B Department of Energy Contract
FERMI FORWARD DISCOVERY GROUP, LLC: $2.4B Department of Energy Contract
HANFORD TANK WASTE OPERATIONS & CLOSURE, LLC: $1.5B Department of Energy Contract
PANTEXAS DETERRENCE, LLC: $3.5B Department of Energy Contract
CENTRAL PLATEAU CLEANUP COMPANY, LLC: $946M Department of Energy Contract
AMERICAN CENTRIFUGE OPERATING, LLC: $900M Department of Energy Contract
GENERAL MATTER, INC.: $900M Department of Energy Contract
Presidential Memorandum: Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Coal Supply Chains and Baseload Power Generation Capacity
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