ANCHOR Act of 2025

1) The ANCHOR Act of 2025, formally the Access to New Community Health Opportunities and Recovery Act, was introduced by Senator Blackburn (R-TN) on December 2, 2025, and referred to the Senate Finance Committee. A companion bill (HR 6408) was introduced in the House and referred to Energy and Commerce. The bill remains in early legislative stages with no further action since introduction. However, the market has moved aggressively—CNC is up 62.22% over 30 days, MOH up 46.44%, and HUM up 39.19%—indicating the market is discounting either passage or a broader favorable regulatory shift for Medicaid MCOs. 2) The bill does not appropriate any funds. It amends Section 1902 of the Social Security Act to create a state option to cover 'specified individuals'—uninsured adults at or below 100% of the federal poverty line who have a qualifying condition (serious mental illness, serious emotional disturbance, opioid use disorder, or stimulant use disorder). The mechanism is purely permissive: states may expand eligibility, and if they do, federal matching funds (FMAP) apply under standard Medicaid rules. There is no dollar ceiling because costs depend entirely on state adoption rates and per-member costs, but the CBO would likely score this as increasing federal Medicaid spending by billions if widely adopted. 3) Structural winners are Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs) that contract with states to administer benefits for the newly eligible population. Centene Corporation (CNC) is the purest play—~60% of revenue from Medicaid, the largest MCO by enrollment. Molina Healthcare (MOH) is next, with ~90% premium revenue from Medicaid. Humana (HUM) has smaller but growing Medicaid exposure, particularly in dual-eligible and behavioral health. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and CVS Health (CVS) are diversified players where Medicaid is a smaller revenue share, but both benefit directionally. The specific inclusion of substance use disorders and the broad definition of qualifying entities (CCBHCs, emergency departments, law enforcement, child welfare agencies) expands the enrollment funnel well beyond traditional healthcare settings. 4) Real market data shows a massive 30-day rally in Medicaid-exposed MCOs: CNC +62.22% ($38.17 to $53.11), MOH +46.44% ($148.97 to $195.21), HUM +39.19% ($205.14 to $241.35), UNH +36.02% ($324.63 to $368.06), and CVS +16.43% ($77.30 to $83.62). The 7-day changes are also substantial: CNC +27%, MOH +10.95%, HUM +12.14%, UNH +3.7%, CVS +7.29%. This price action significantly exceeds what a single early-stage bill alone would typically drive, suggesting the market is pricing in either government-wide support for Medicaid expansion in the 119th Congress or investor anticipation of additional legislative catalysts. The rally has been parabolic in the last week—CNC alone gained ~24% from April 28 to April 29 before a slight pullback. 5) Legislative timeline: The bill has taken no further action since December 2, 2025. To become law, it must pass the Senate Finance Committee, full Senate, House Energy and Commerce Committee, full House, and be signed by the President. As an authorization-only bill, it faces the normal 119th Congress legislative calendar. However, the companion bill in the House and bipartisan sponsor (Republican from Tennessee) increase passage probability. The primary risk is lack of floor time in an election year (2026 midterms) or competing healthcare priorities. Market expectations appear to have front-run any near-term legislative movement, suggesting potential for pullback if momentum stalls.